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Top storylines of 2011 NBA playoffs
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By Zach Lowe
April 14, 2011
After a crazy end to the season in which all 30 teams played on the final night to solidify the Western Conference standings, the 2010-11 regular season is complete. The second season — some call it the postseason – begins at 1 p.m. ET on Saturday, and as usual, a bevy of storylines will keep us entertained all the way to early June. Here are the top things to watch for in the playoffs:
Can the defending conference champs flip the switch?
Switch-flipping is a dicey thing, historically, but the Lakers and Celtics have the pedigree that suggests they can do it. Boston finished last season 27-27 before shocking even their own fans by plowing through the East and coming within a few minutes of the franchise’s 18th title. The Celtics went only 10-11 in their last 21 games this season, and though the decision to trade Kendrick Perkins to the Thunder is the easy target here, the real culprit is the team’s offense, which finished just 19th in points per possessions.
Rajon Rondo is barely shooting 40 percent since the start of March, Glen Davis’ jumper has deserted him and the Celtics generally looked helpless against elite Miami and Chicago defenses in games this month. This hasn’t been a good offensive team in two years, but it will have to be better for Boston to seriously contend.
And the Lakers? They lost five of their last seven games and nearly blew their season finale — and the second seed — in Sacramento on Wednesday. But they stumbled late last season, too, and their 17-1 run after this season’s All-Star break is a better indicator of how good this team can be — as long as Andrew Bynum’s bone bruise isn’t a lingering injury.
Are the Bulls legit? And how will they tighten their rotation?
Chicago finished with the best record, the second-best point margin and an allegedly “weak link” offense that crept to the edge of the top 10 in points per possession by the end of the season. The Bulls will need that offense to continue to improve because they will likely have to go through three of the league’s top 12 defenses just to make the Finals.
One thing to monitor: The Bulls have gone 10 deep all season, and that’s a larger rotation than most coaches prefer in the postseason. Coach Tom Thibodeau can’t lean much harder on Derrick Rose or Luol Deng, but it will be interesting to see how he divvies up minutes among guys like Keith Bogans, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik. All have been crucial parts of Chicago’s rise, and all bring a mix of elite niche skills (Korver’s shooting, Brewer’s defense and cutting) and limitations. Thibodeau has decisions to make, and matchups will be paramount in those decisions.
Supporting casts for those 2012 free agents you’ve heard about.
It’s a reality, even if it’s an uncomfortable one: Dwight Howard and Chris Paul could be free agents one year from now, and if their current clubs want to keep them (duh), it would be very helpful if the supporting casts in Orlando and New Orleans performed under postseason pressure.
This is especially crucial in Orlando, a title contender for two straight years that has taken a step back this season just as its GM, Otis Smith, locked it into Hedo Turkoglu and Gilbert Arenas for the long term. Turkoglu is one of many Magic players whose performance has been up-and-down this season. Arenas has been a disaster; he’s shooting 34 percent overall in Orlando, including just 27.5 percent on an inexcusable 3.7 three-point attempts per game. Jameer Nelson’s occasional All-Star-level play only serves to tantalize; Jason Richardson hasn’t fit in quite as smoothly as the Magic hoped; and there is a lot of pressure now on the Ryan Anderson/Brandon Bass power forward combination to play huge playoff minutes.
The situation is less serious in New Orleans, which has no shot against the Lakers even if Emeka Okafor starts playing like Howard Lite. This team defends like mad, but the roster beyond Paul will have to hit shots for this series to be competitive. That has been the challenge all season, particularly for the Hornets’ committee of shooting guards and for Trevor Ariza, a key building block suffering a miserable shooting season. Paul would surely like to see progress.
Are the Heat ready for this?
If you’ve watched Miami carefully, you know two things:
1) Its offense has steadily evolved into a force. It’s not a finished product, and the team has struggled in the clutch, but progress is there in the form of Dwyane Wade/LeBron James pick-and-rolls, LeBron’s improved post-up work and a host of sets that involve the three stars working with each other instead of in isolation. The Heat must stay committed to that kind of movement to score against teams like Boston, Chicago and Orlando, particularly because James and Wade are not elite jump shooters.
2) This is an elite defense capable of thwarting any offense. That should sustain.
The uncertainty here surrounds Miami’s depth, and not just at the center and point guard positions, which have been shaky all season. Mike Miller has never been 100 percent, and if he can’t play his unique all-around game in the postseason, Miami’s lineup versatility and potent small lineups take a major hit. The Heat may not need any one of their big men other than Chris Bosh to play consistently for two months, but they will need consistent production from that group as a whole to win the title.
Size in San Antonio
The Spurs may have to go through Memphis, Oklahoma City and the Lakers, all teams that have imposing front lines capable of hurting you on both ends. That’s notable, because this version of the Spurs has thrived on smaller lineups and three-point shooting, and it has not been able to get consistent production from a legit big man other than Tim Duncan. DeJuan Blair opened the season as a starter, but he’s undersized and has since been used off the bench. Antonio McDyess is starting now, but he’s almost 37 and averaged only 19 minutes this season.
Tiago Splitter never emerged as a consistent rotation threat, though he could be a Gregg Popovich secret weapon in the playoffs.
That has left Matt Bonner to log a lot of minutes at power forward. His three-point shooting has fit beautifully with what this roster is built to do: spread the floor, run pick-and-rolls with Duncan, cut and screen everywhere, and rain triples.
Will that be enough against the West’s behemoths? Or will Popovich adjust his minutes distribution to get more size on the floor?
The Thunder’s rise
The narrative suggests that the Thunder should be happy to win a playoff series, lose to San Antonio and come back in 2012 to take the next step in their development. But their play since acquiring Perkins suggests that they might be ready to contend for a title now. They whipped Denver (their first-round opponent) in back-to-back games earlier this month, and they’ve been playing elite defense since Perkins replaced Jeff Green in the starting lineup. Do not be shocked if they are playing in June.
The most intriguing first-round series: Dirk’s last ride vs. Portland’s first-round jinx
To call this Dirk Nowitzki’s ”last ride” is obviously dramatic, but the future of this Mavericks team is uncertain. Jason Kidd is 38 and will be a free agent after next season along with Jason Terry. Tyson Chandler, the anchor of Dallas’ semi-revived defense, is a free agent after this season and plays the same position as Brendan Haywood, to whom Dallas has already committed more than $50 million. Caron Butler will be a free agent, Roddy Beaubois’ development has hit a snag, Shawn Marion is declining and Corey Brewer is at the edge of Rick Carlisle’s rotation.
In other words: This team badly needs a playoff run now, especially after going out in the first round in three of the last four seasons.
There may not be a more puzzling team in the league. At one point, Dallas was 43-9 with Nowitzki in the lineup, and it flattened just about every elite team it came across. Then Nowitzki got hurt, the Mavs’ defense fell off a bit and they lost nine straight games to Western Conference playoff teams before beating the Hornets in the season finale. Dallas has to recapture its early-season form in order to do any damage.
Two of those nine consecutive losses came against the Blazers, a team that hasn’t won a playoff series since 2000. Things have somehow come together after two devastating injuries (to Greg Oden and Brandon Roy) and one major trade (for Gerald Wallace), and the Blazers present serious matchup problems for Dallas. Portland is a dangerous team.
Denver’s battle with conventional wisdom
Mike D’Antoni’s Suns became the darlings for those who root against lazy truisms that say offense-first teams can’t win championships. Denver is that team this season, but not because it’s bad at defense; it’s been one of the league’s top-three defensive clubs since swapping Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks in February.
But the Nuggets could challenge the idea that a team must have one or two go-to guys — those isolation beasts — to win in the playoffs. The Nuggets don’t really have that kind of player, though a couple of guys here could grow into that role. The Nuggets score in transition and with fast-paced movement in the half court — slipped screens, hard cuts to the hoop and along the baseline, decisive passes. Can that work in the slowed-down world of the playoffs?
Are the revamped Knicks ready for prime time?
New York’s first playoff appearance since 2003-04 is a nice story. But remember that this team re-made itself on the fly and has had two-dozen games to undergo the sort of progress it has taken Miami a full season to get right. The reality is that the Knicks probably aren’t ready, and that the Anthony trade was not really about this season, anyway. The team has defended poorly since the deal, and Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire are still learning how to play together.
Still: This offense can be deadly if the stars play it right — especially Anthony, whose tendency to stop the ball won’t work against an elite defense like Boston’s. This could be a super-entertaining series if the Knicks are game.
Atlanta’s struggle for relevancy
The most depressing playoff team in the league has a chance to reinvigorate itself with a strong showing against the Magic, the same club that humiliated Atlanta in a four-game sweep last season. Since then, the Hawks badly overpaid Joe Johnson; made a half-hearted commitment to a motion offense that fell flat; failed to develop Jeff Teague; saw rookie coach Larry Drew clash now and then with Josh Smith; lost several awful blowouts at home; and put up a negative overall scoring margin normally associated with a lottery team.
The Hawks are capped out through 2013 as things stand now, and they don’t appear to be going anywhere with this group. Can they show us something now?
Memphis, turnovers and the basketball gods
The Grizzlies, suffering a severe case of Lakers paranoia, unexpectedly tanked their final two games instead of gunning for the sixth seed. They’ll face the top-seeded Spurs instead, and that will provide a fascinating test for the Grizzlies’ unique style. Memphis defense put up one of the highest turnover rates in recent history. Guys like Tony Allen (a legit folk hero in Memphis now), Mike Conley and Sam Young gamble in passing lanes, guard you chest-to-chest and feast on steals. All those turnovers lead to easy points and make up for the fact that Memphis’ opponents shoot a decent percentage from the field — and a very good percentage from three-point range.
Whether that can work against San Antonio in the playoffs is debatable. Few teams take care of the ball as well as the Spurs, and few feature an offense better suited to making teams play for gambling. All of those backdoor cuts, surprise perimeter screens and swing passes punish overeager defenders.
But this is the matchup the Grizzlies wanted. Now they’re stuck with it.
NBA news archive:
2011, 2010, 2009
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