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Road to the NL playoffs is fraught with obstacles
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By Tim Brown
September 13, 2010
It’s mid-September, which explains the Colorado Rockies and, perhaps, Troy Tulowitzki’s mullet.
But, what about the rest?
These final weeks, the ones that fall in September, they do things to people.
Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, through 12 games over 13 days, combine to drive in 29 runs.
Carlos Gonzalez bats .455. Tulowitzki hits eight home runs.
Tim Lincecum wins three games, and so does Roy Oswalt. Tim Hudson loses three games. Francisco Cordero blows two saves, becoming the month’s nominee for Most Likely to Succeed Brad Lidge.
The Rockies score 74 runs in 12 games, while the San Diego Padres score 24 in 11. The St. Louis Cardinals’ ERA balloons to 4.44, while the San Francisco Giants’ drops to 1.84 (thanks, four games at Petco Park).
Brandon Phillips hits .140. Todd Helton hits .115 (but draws 12 walks, for a .395 on-base percentage). Pablo Sandoval hits .120 (and draws two walks, for a .179 on-base percentage). And five regular Padres are batting less than .200 for the month. Take a step forward Chris Denorfia, David Eckstein, Chase Headley, Ryan Ludwick and Miguel Tejada.
Some players find themselves.
Some players lose it all.
And some players, well, some players’ appendixes just blow (Giants center fielder Andres Torres is expected to miss two to three weeks).
By design or circumstance or curse or complete fluke, mid-September baseball arrives and with it the last of the season’s survivors.
In the American League, they’re playing for seeding.
In the National League, for October.
Five teams play for three spots or, if you’re not yet ready to put a red ribbon on the NL Central, seven teams for four.
The Phillies, Braves, Giants, Padres and Rockies have somewhere from 79 and 83 wins and 61 to 64 losses.
From them, there will be a winner of the NL East, of the NL West, and, likely, a wild card.
For clarity’s sake – or further muddling – we examine a few of the National League subplots going into Monday night’s games:
The schedule
The Giants have the clear advantage. Of their 18 remaining games, only six are on the road and six are against contending teams. On the final weekend, they host the Padres for three games. And their coming nine games are against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs, against whom they are a combined 15-8.
The Padres have the greatest challenge. Though they’ve been a capable road team (before losing five of their last six), those wins aren’t coming as easily, and 13 of their final 20 are away from Petco Park. Their next three series are in Colorado (beginning Monday night), St. Louis and Los Angeles. They are 14-22 against those teams. ”Dude,” Padres closer Heath Bell told reporters Sunday, ”we’re still in the driver’s seat.” As long as Tom Brady doesn’t have shotgun.
The Rockies are 36-24 against their remaining opponents, much of that advantage due to their 11-4 record against the Padres. They are the worst road team left among the contenders, primarily because their OPS is 224 points lower away from the magic humidor. When Jim Tracy says, ”Baseball is baseball at Coors Field now,” which he says often, he doesn’t necessarily mean his own offense.
The Braves and Phillies play each other six more times, the last three in Atlanta. They both also get the Washington Nationals six more times and the New York Mets three times. And they both split their remaining 18 games between home and the road.
While the Cardinals play 14 of their remaining 21 games at Busch, including a season-ending four games against the Rockies, they are 13-15 against those opponents. The Reds, conversely, are 18-5 against teams on the rest of their schedule and have only three games left against a contender (the Padres, naturally).
The injuries, coming and going
Cincinnati: The Reds had two healthy regular outfielders over parts of last weekend, bringing a rare right-field appearance from Miguel Cairo. They could get Jay Bruce (side) back for their series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, which starts tonight at Great American Ball Park.
St. Louis: Albert Pujols has a sore left elbow, which appeared to be bothering him right up until he homered twice off Hudson on Sunday night.
Colorado: Aaron Cook’s broken leg opens a place in the rotation for Jeff Francis, who returns Monday night from a sore left biceps. Carlos Gonzalez has a sore wrist.
Atlanta: The Braves are 17-14 without Chipper Jones.
Philadelphia: It looks like Brad Lidge is going to throw through a sore elbow, while Jimmy Rollins has been out since Wednesday because of a hamstring strain. He was to have an MRI on Monday.
San Francisco: Aaron Rowand gets center field back because of Torres’ cranky appendix. Torres is expected to miss two or three weeks.
San Diego: Jerry Hairston Jr. has returned from his elbow injury, though it’s not been determined how effective he can be. Tony Gwynn is recovering from a broken hand and probably will miss the rest of the month.
The other stuff
Colorado: The Rockies are 61-35 in September and October over the last four years. Said Jason Hammel to the Denver Post: ”It’s Denver, it’s Colorado, it’s the Rockies in September. It’s ridiculous.” Before his wrist started barking late last week, CarGo batted .525 with seven home runs over 16 games.
Cincinnati: Dusty Baker is still waiting on that contract extension. Aroldis Chapman hasn’t yet allowed an earned run. It took the club one start to come to the conclusion Aaron Harang belongs not in the rotation, but the bullpen.
St. Louis: Colby Rasmus seems to have come out of last week’s scrape with renewed energy/anger/focus/whatever. He’s batted .375 over the past seven days. Until the Cardinals and Tony La Russa get together on a new contract, they’ll be treated to a new La Russa destination almost daily. The latest: Seattle.
San Diego: Losers of 13 of 17 (thanks, Dodgers), the Padres not only have a possible freefall on their hands, but have to consider changes in their rotation. Innings are piling up for Mat Latos and Clayton Richard(notes), and Chris Young has declared himself ready to help the team win.
Atlanta: Jason Heyward, making one last claim to NL Rookie of the Year, in his past 21 games: .429 average, 5 home runs, 15 RBI. Tommy Hanson has lost six wins because of blown saves. Only Josh Johnson has lost more.
San Francisco: Buster Posey, who’ll have his own ROY say, did not play Friday in San Diego after taking two foul balls directly to the mask, and another off his thigh the night before. He returned and homered Sunday. Lincecum needs 10 more strikeouts to pass Dwight Gooden for most strikeouts after four seasons. He’s scheduled to start next Saturday against the Brewers.
Philadelphia: In the role of Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt is 6-1 with a 1.98 ERA since being acquired from Houston. He pitches again Saturday against the Nationals.
• MLB News Archive Index:
2010, 2009
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