Race to the Chase is a mere formality

By Jay Hart
June 27, 2010


Loudon, NH — Let’s cut to the Chase. Literally.

Nine races remain before NASCAR’s Chase for the Championship begins. Between now and then, the only real drama to be played out is if Dale Earnhardt Jr. earns one of the 12 playoff spots, which in the grand scheme means very little.

Junior isn’t a title threat. We know this because we know who the title threats are, and that’s why the next two months are a mere formality.

This is the tradeoff for adopting a playoff format. By adding emphasis to the final 10 races, you reduce the importance of the preceding 10.

Yes, Sunday’s Lenox Industrial Tools 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway maintained a modicum of importance. NHMS marks the track where the Chase will begin in September, so teams want to be good there now in order to set them up well for the more crucial later. There were also the 10 Chase bonus points up for grabs for the race winner, which ended up going to Jimmie Johnson, who muscled his way by Kurt Busch on the second-to-last lap.

Mostly, though, what happens between now and September, when the series returns to the Granite State, will be a whole lot of jockeying for position between the real contenders:

          •  Johnson and Denny Hamlin, each with five wins, will go head-to-head in the battle for the top spot entering the Chase.

          •  Points leader Kevin Harvick will try to go from a top-five regular to a race-winning driver.

          •  Kurt and Kyle Busch will try to make the improvements necessary to be consistent over a 10-race stretch.

          •  Jeff Gordon will try to find the speed that he’s lacked in keeping up with their teammate, Johnson.

          •  Tony Stewart will try to warm up in the summer months, as he tends to do, and then stay warm.

          •  And Jeff Burton will try to throw away all the bad luck that has plagued him so far this season.

As for the others – namely Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Earnhardt Jr. – they’re really nothing more than field fillers at this point. They’ll make the Chase, but only because the field has to include 12 drivers.

Sunday’s race was a perfect example on all accounts.

Hamlin and his team went into the weekend experimenting with a new setup, one they hoped would give them an edge now for the win and later when they return to NHMS for the start of the Chase. It backfired on them. Hamlin struggled all weekend and wound up 14th.

Harvick racked up yet another out-of-nowhere top five, his eighth of the season, which is the good news. The bad news is that while top 5s are good, they won’t be good enough if Johnson is finishing first.

“We want to win a couple of races or a race or two before the Chase starts and hopefully hit our winning streaks in the last 10,” Harvick said. “That’s when it all counts.”

Both Kurt and Kyle Busch led laps, but Kyle’s car wasn’t good enough when it counted and Kurt’s wasn’t fast enough to hold off Johnson at the end. Same went for Gordon, who wound up fourth but was never a contender for the win.

Stewart, who finished second, continued his rise up the standings, recording his fourth-straight top-10. Next week’s race at Daytona, a race he’s won three times, will be a telling sign for the two-time champion.

Burton was a contender for the win, but once again Lady Luck wasn’t on his side. He was cruising toward his first victory of the season when a late caution came out. When he decided not to pit, everyone else did, leaving Burton as a sitting duck. Instead of winning, he wound up 12th.

As for the rest, only one of the three Roush Fenway drivers (Biffle) finished on the lead lap. Edwards actually finished two laps down. And while Earnhardt continues to improve – he’s finished seventh, 11th and eighth in his last three races – he’s still a long way from competing for wins.

Which brings us back to Johnson, who has responded to his supposed slump by winning back-to-back races. As good as Hamlin was from the end of March to the beginning of June, winning five times in an 11-race stretch, Johnson still remains the driver to beat, something he’s once again proven the last two weeks.

After Sunday’s win, Johnson’s crew chief, Chad Knaus, insisted that they aren’t focused on the Chase yet, saying “we are worried about making the Chase, and that’s what we have got to do.” But Knaus isn’t fooling anyone. Johnson has a 364-point lead over Edwards in 12th, meaning it would take a complete meltdown and a total turnaround for the likes of Edwards for the four-time defending champ to miss the Chase.

No, it’s all formality from here until September. But just like any television drama, we have to wait out the summer before the new season begins.

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