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One win can’t help the Cavaliers future
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By Rob Mahoney
March 30, 2011
The Cavaliers did it. They banded together, played like an actual NBA team, and defeated LeBron James and his Miami Heat. It was an unlikely victory, to say the least, but offered a sweet satisfaction. This is as close as Cleveland will get to catharsis: LeBron leaving town with a loss, some mildly enthusiastic cheers in an arena that wasn’t even sold out, and an unremarkable regular-season game that history will soon forget.
When Tuesday night’s victors wake up in the morning, they’ll face a painful realization: They’re still the Cleveland Cavaliers. Nothing has changed. Win No. 15 may have held some sentimental significance, but that token importance can’t erase the fact that the Cavs are getting their 15th win of the season in March.
Tuesday’s triumph — Cleveland’s first double-digit win of the season — doesn’t disguise the fact that the Cavs are in a miserable place. They’re far and away the worst team in basketball, and unlike their fellow cellar-dwellers in Minnesota, Washington, Sacramento and New Jersey, there’s no hope built into Cleveland’s roster. There’s a reason, after all, that this franchise is still chasing ghosts; without a player talented enough to allow the Cavs to look forward, they stand mired in visions of the past and the misery of the present.
The Cavaliers are sometimes referred to as a “rebuilding” team, but more accurately, they’re a club in demolition. Constructing a foundation is the next step, but for now, Cleveland needs to find a way to clear the massive deals of Antawn Jamison (set to make $15.1 million next season) and Baron Davis (who’s owed $28.7 million over the next two years) off the books while disassembling a collection of nonessential veterans.
Unfortunately, Cleveland’s timing for a rebuild couldn’t be worse. James wisely constructed his previous contract to provide him an out just before the expiration of the NBA’s current collective bargaining agreement, but by actually taking that out, he put the Cavs in a particularly rough spot. LeBron should hardly be held responsible for the well-being of a team he no longer plays for, but his decision to leave Cleveland has nonetheless put the Cavs in a position of considerable need at the worst possible time.
The stars foretell of a lockout next season, and even the mere potential for a work stoppage has made (and will continue to make) a major impact on the NBA world. Yet the teams who suffer least from a potential lockout are those for whom inertia isn’t a problem. The Lakers, Heat and Thunder, for instance, are already quite successful and need only to make small, peripheral changes to reboot for another season. Each of those teams has an established core, and can rest easy knowing that, lockout or not. But franchises in need of an overhaul — a list that the Cavaliers surely top — are challenged on several fronts. How exactly is Cleveland supposed to improve between this season and next?
Internal development certainly isn’t the answer. Cleveland has a few solid young assets (Ramon Sessions, J.J. Hickson), but no player on its current roster is productive enough to build around. Sessions and/or Hickson may bridge this and the next era of Cavaliers basketball, but neither should be a focal point in GM Chris Grant’s rebuilding efforts. Incremental improvements should be expected, but if the Cavs are counting on either Sessions or Hickson to “make the jump,” then their assessment is flawed.
The draft may seem like the Cavs’ best chance to secure a talented young player, but it’s important to remember that even the worst team in the league has but a 25 percent chance of grabbing the top pick. Or, put another way: The team with the worst record has received the No. 1 pick in the draft only two times since 1990 — in 2004, when the 21-61 Magic selected Dwight Howard, and in 2003, when the 17-65 Cavaliers locked up LeBron.
Plus, that numbers game is only a part of the problem. Although some analysts may see real value at the top of this draft class, the inclusion of its best players is anything but certain. Jared Sullinger — previously projected to be a top pick — has already expressed his intent to return to Ohio State for another season. On top of that, according to Chad Ford’s latest draft update for ESPN.com, Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes, Brandon Knight and John Henson are just four of many talented players currently on the fence (Ford describes them as “50-50?) about declaring for the draft. Throw in the buyout complications that could prevent the immediate arrival of Lithuanian prospect Jonas Valanciunas, and it’s possible that four of the top five NBA prospects (according to DraftExpress) won’t be in the draft pool at all.
The lockout is providing a legitimate scare for NBA hopefuls, and though some of the players on that list could just be playing coy about their intent to go pro, it should surprise no one if players like Williams and Barnes decide to play it safe and return to school.
Also, keep in mind that Cleveland took on Baron Davis’ contract in order to acquire another lottery pick this season, so if the pool of available players is found lacking, then that gamble may not pay off. The Cavs are certainly in position to add a useful player or two through the draft nonetheless, but the odds seem stacked against the possibility of securing the kind of star-level talent they need to get back on their feet.
Free agency and the trade market are where things get even trickier. Without the framework of a new collective bargaining agreement in place, the Cavs won’t be able to formulate any kind of precise plan for offseason improvement; trade and salary cap rules could be significantly different by the time the league comes out of lockout hibernation. Roster moves are complex maneuverings that require an incredible level of specificity, and yet the next CBA is distant enough to offer an incredibly ambiguous picture. Constructing a team is a challenge in itself, but how are Grant and the Cavs supposed to think three moves ahead when the very rules of the game may change in the meantime?
Teams have made all kinds of horrible offseason blunders in the past, even after months of preparation, planning and research. This year, however, teams will likely be forced into an abbreviated free-agency period under new rules that alter the way teams can operate. That could create a cesspool for poor, rushed decision-making, and the Cavs are no exception to the pressures of those conditions, even if they face the most desperate need for improvement.
Rebuilding is tough, but rebuilding under these conditions? It’s seemingly impossible, honestly. There’s a distinct possibility that the Cavs could go into next season without actually improving all that much, or without acquiring a piece that will be a considerable part of their long-term future. A new season brings a blank slate, but even an active offseason may not prevent another painful realization: One year later, they may still be those same Cleveland Cavaliers — they of 15 wins and so little to look forward to.
NBA News Archive:
2011, 2010, 2009
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