Eagles, Packers’ futures brighter than Giants’

By Charles Robinson
November 20, 2009


With seven weeks left in the NFL’s regular season, it’s time for the annual glance into the crystal ball. Mathematically, we’re looking at a wide-open race for the postseason. But realistically, the 17 teams with a winning record have all but eliminated any dark horses in the playoff race.

This year, elite level quarterbacks will play a major role in how the remainder of the season plays out. Indeed, I think 10 of the 12 playoff teams this season will be represented by a Pro Bowl-level quarterback, and the other two – the Ravens’ Joe Flacco and Packers’ Aaron Rodgers – are having upper-echelon seasons.

With that in mind, here is what the crystal ball sees for the postseason seeding, as well as a handful of teams that will narrowly miss out …


NFC

1. New Orleans Saints (14-2)

No 16-0 for this team. Not with the number of troubling injuries starting to mount, or with New Orleans already having been seriously challenged into the fourth quarter of its last four games. The Saints will trip up against the Patriots and then one more time in the back-to-back games against Atlanta and Dallas. Drew Brees’(notes) 69.4 rating against three AFC East teams is the troubling stat that I just can’t get past this season. His penchant for feast or famine games will bite the Saints eventually, but not enough to jeopardize the No. 1 seed.


2. Minnesota Vikings (13-3)

The three-game run against Arizona, Cincinnati and Carolina in early December is far tougher than it looked a month ago. The Vikings will slip up in there, and I have to believe there will be another fluky loss somewhere on the schedule, particularly with Adrian Peterson’s continued ball security problems. And Bernard Berrian’s hamstring issue is going to linger all season long. One more injury in that set of receivers and it starts to get extremely thin.


3. Arizona Cardinals (12-4)

So long as Anquan Boldin continues to improve from a health standpoint, I’m buying this team getting its act together in the second half. Steve Breaston is that X-factor who has finally started to click in a major way again in the last three weeks. And the emergence of Beanie Wells’ big-play ability has the potential to make this an even better offense than it was one year ago at this time. Two road games at Tennessee and San Francisco are sandwiched around a home tilt against Minnesota. That’s the stretch that will make or break a top seed for the Cardinals.


4. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)

Dallas will complete the season sweep over Philadelphia in the finale and secure the division title via head-to-head. The Cowboys are the only team in the NFC East right now with a winning record at home and on the road, and that’s more impressive than it sounds. The loss of right tackle Marc Colombo hurts, but Dallas made a very good decision to move Doug Free into the starting lineup rather than move guard Leonard Davis outside and endanger the line’s chemistry. Other than the Colombo injury, this is actually one of the healthier playoff contenders right now, and that will pay big dividends in the second half. A 3-1 mark against the Giants, Chargers, Saints and Redskins prior to the finale would deliver the NFC East.


5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6, wild card)

The Eagles will split back-to-back road games against the Falcons and Giants and drop the season finale in Dallas, but win everything else, including the Week 16 game against Denver. With Brian Westbrook out of the mix for a sustained period, rookie LeSean McCoy will finally be allowed to work into a groove. But it’s the health in the back seven of the defense and the offensive line that will make the difference. The Eagles simply can’t afford to lose any more linebackers, defensive backs or offensive linemen. Donovan McNabb has to improve his accuracy on the road, too. That 56.9 completion percentage away from Philadelphia is more troublesome than it looks.


6. Green Bay Packers (9-7, wild card)

Green Bay will qualify for the final wild card with a tiebreaker over Atlanta, thanks to a better record inside the NFC. The mercurial play of the defense is what is going to make the difference in the remaining seven games. The unit was abysmal in back-to-back losses against Minnesota and Tampa Bay, but it turned around with its best game of the season against Dallas. Gaining momentum in the next four weeks against San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore and Chicago is a must. The Packers will also benefit from a season finale that will likely see the Cardinals resting some of their starters. Beyond the sacks and the defense, the health of linebackers Aaron Kampman(notes) and Brandon Chillar will be paramount down the stretch.


Narrowly missed: Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants

The Falcons’ injuries and road struggles will ultimately be their undoing, while the Giants’ offensive inconsistency and brutal remaining schedule will keep them from the postseason.


AFC

1. Indianapolis Colts (14-2)

Colts fans may not want to hear it, but a loss is coming, likely in the next three games against Baltimore, Houston and Tennessee. Indianapolis has flirted with defeat three weeks in a row now, trailing at some point in the fourth quarter of all three of those games. The pass defense was spread out and exposed a bit against New England, and the running game is too fragile and inconsistent. At some point, Peyton Manning is going to struggle and Indianapolis is going to pay. And I have to believe there will be a second fluke loss in the there at some point, possibly in the short week when the Colts play at Jacksonville on a Thursday night in Week 15.


2. New England Patriots (13-3)

That’s right: despite a bothersome 1-3 road record and a collapse against the Colts, I don’t think the Patriots will lose again. And that includes the Monday night game against New Orleans on Nov. 30. I think the first three quarters of that game against the Colts were more representative of this team than what happened in the fourth quarter. And nobody responds better to a game like that than Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. More importantly, this team has remained in good health through the first nine games of the season, and the schedule isn’t overly challenging. A run to the postseason is definitely in the cards.


3. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

I nearly gave this team a 13-3 record and the No. 2 seed via tiebreakers, but the Cedric Benson hip injury is worrisome. The team and Benson are downplaying it, but an abductor strain can be a nagging, long-term problem without sustained rest. Atlanta’s Jerious Norwood missed four straight games with the same injury. And I think Cincinnati tipped its hand a little by signing Larry Johnso, who is certainly not fodder for the bottom of the depth chart. He’s a potential playoff starter if Benson’s hip doesn’t hold up, plain and simple. Benson’s hip is the only thing that scares me about this team. You take him out of the mix, and that offense becomes far more one dimensional. I think it trips up the Bengals in road games against Minnesota and San Diego.


4. San Diego Chargers (10-6)

The schedule isn’t exactly cake, but all the Chargers need to do is beat Denver this week, and win home games against Kansas City and Washington, and a road game at Cleveland. With the way the Chargers are playing right now, and Denver’s sudden spate of injury concerns (on top of a lagging offense), that shouldn’t be a problem. And if the pass rush keeps steadily improving the way it has in recent weeks, the Chargers should have no problem competing in their three-game run against Dallas, Cincinnati and Tennessee. I like the Chargers a lot in the second half of the season, particularly with the way quarterback Philip Rivers has played on the road (a 99.4 quarterback rating with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions).


5. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5, wild card)

Getting swept by the Bengals hurt, particularly when the defense dropped some turnovers in last week’s loss. But Pittsburgh’s second half matches up well for the defense, which will face a litany of quarterbacks who are either inexperienced (Bruce Gradkowski), have been roughed up (Aaron Rodgers) or shown a penchant for making mistakes under a pass rush (Brady Quinn). With the Dolphins’ injury situation, it looks like there is only one tough road game left: in Baltimore on Nov. 29. A series split with the Ravens is an absolute must. Perhaps the biggest plus going into the stretch run is back-to-back games against Oakland and Cleveland, which should allow the Steelers to build some momentum heading into the stretch run of Green Bay, Baltimore and Miami. Safety Troy Polamalu is expected to be back for that stretch, which will be a boost.


6. Baltimore Ravens (10-6, wild card)

The offensive struggles the last two weeks give me pause about this team, particularly a passing game that’s not providing the vertical production that was so prevalent before the Ravens’ bye. There are simply a lot of inconsistencies on both sides of the ball, from the cornerbacks and the occasional problems with the run defense, to the inconsistent nature of Ray Rice’s workload. That said, I think the Ravens are capable of solving a lot of those problems. The key to the postseason will be the games against Indianapolis, Green Bay and Pittsburgh (twice). The Ravens have to split those games 2-2, and take care of business versus Detroit, Chicago and a season finale against an Oakland team that will likely have the vacation suitcases packed and the car running. The Ravens will pull it off.


Narrowly missed: Denver Broncos and Houston Texans

I think both Denver and Houston will manage nine wins, but that just won’t be enough. Denver’s offensive struggles since the bye, along with Kyle Orton’s banged up ankle, will come back to haunt them in games against the Chargers, Giants, Colts and Eagles. For Houston, the loss of Owen Daniels and the lack of a reliable pass rush will spell doom in the second half.

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Risky call puts Belichick in bad company

By Michael Silver
November 19, 2009


When Bill Belichick made the decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 28 with 2:08 remaining and a six-point lead over the Colts on Sunday night, the future Hall of Fame coach knew exactly what he was doing.

It was a perfect setup for ego-driven gratification, guaranteed to paint him as an avant garde genius or a misunderstood martyr: Either the Pats would convert the first down and win the game, and Belichick would be heralded as the shrewdest coach in America, or they’d fall short and lose, and he’d be pummeled by lesser mortals like me who simply don’t understand football on a higher plane.

We all saw what happened, and now it’s time for Belichick to assume the position. Bill, meet Barry Switzer. And see that guy over there in the corner of the room with padded walls? That would be one Sam Wyche.

Many people recall Switzer’s similarly dubious fourth-down gamble as coach of the Cowboys, which led to a late-season defeat to the Eagles in 1995. Less familiar to most fans is Wyche’s incomprehensible decision, as coach of the Bengals, to give Joe Montana and Jerry Rice a chance to beat him in 1987.

In that game, the Bengals led the 49ers, 26-20, with six seconds remaining at Riverfront Stadium. San Francisco was about to fall to 0-2, pending a Cincinnati punt from its own 31-yard line, where the Bengals faced a fourth-and-long. Wyche didn’t want to risk a punt, instead calling a sweep for James Brooks, with the assumption that the play would eat up the remaining time.

It didn’t: Kevin Fagan nailed Brooks for a six-yard loss with two seconds to go, and I’ll never forget the sight of Montana gleefully sprinting back onto the field like a kid who’d just been told that school was letting out in mid-May. Wyche compounded the problem by leaving rookie cornerback Eric Thomas in single coverage on Rice, who reached up to catch Montana’s “Hail Jerry” pass in the end zone, with the ensuing extra point giving the Niners a stunning victory.

As with Sunday, there was a genius in a headset involved in that episode, but in this case Bill Walsh was the guy literally skipping off the field in delight. And Wyche? He was brutalized publicly as the Bengals wheezed to a 4-11 record in the strike-marred season, called a “social leper” by one Cincinnati newspaper and given the nickname Wicky Wacky.

In defense of Belichick, many people have pointed out that he’s perhaps the greatest coach of his era, with three Super Bowl rings and a history of smart leadership. And all of that’s true – but it doesn’t mean that he has complete license to make ill-fated moves without being people questioning whether he has gone off the deep end.

Greater coaches than Belichick have seemingly lost their minds; hey, it’s a stressful profession that feeds God complexes like few others. And it’s not insignificant that two of his most respected ex-players, Rodney Harrison( and Tedy Bruschi, were highly critical of the decision as television analysts.

Trust me when I say that many people currently in the Patriots’ organization, at various levels, were equally perplexed by Belichick’s behavior.

Put it this way: Would Belichick have dared try that move with people like Bruschi, Harrison, Willie McGinest(, Mike Vrabel and Richard Seymour on the sidelines? If he had, there might have been a full-blown incident on the sidelines – which is precisely why Belichick loved and coached those proud defenders, and why he’s doing a disservice to the Jerod Mayos and Brandon Meriweathers by not giving them the opportunity to define themselves in gut-wrenching situations like Sunday’s.

Back when he trusted his defense with the game on the line, Belichick successfully preached to his players that it was all about team. Granted, he was the unquestioned authority figure, but no one – not even the coach – was bigger than the team.

By not punting on Sunday, Belichick essentially acted like he was above his players – and the fact that the decision backfired could have lasting consequences. All of those arguments in defense of Belichick which suggest that he was simply playing the odds won’t fly in the locker room, where results are the only thing that matters.

Besides, the “odds” of converting a fourth-and-2 don’t take into account the risk, numerical and emotional, of failing in that situation. Playing Russian roulette is another example of playing the odds, and if you get away with it, bravo. But if you don’t? Well, Belichick had best hope the Patriots perform as well as he expects them to in the coming weeks and months, or he may look back on Sunday as the moment it all started to unravel.

The weird thing is, neither Wyche nor Switzer let their moments of ignominy take them down. Wyche took the Bengals to the Super Bowl the following season, losing only because of Montana’s brilliant 92-yard drive in the final three-plus minutes. Switzer’s Cowboys didn’t lose again after that defeat in Philly, going on to capture their third Super Bowl title in four years.

Those two coaches were deservedly ripped after their decisions led to defeats, and they did something about it. My advice to Belichick is to take his punishment, rejoin the mere mortals in his midst and try to muster a similar response.

Now here are 32 other things I most certainly can question, in descending order of concern:

1. New Orleans Saints: How scary is it that Darren Sharper’s replacement, Usama Young, had an end-zone interception in his first start?

2. Indianapolis Colts: Yo, football gods: If Jim Caldwell didn’t lose on Sunday, will he ever?

3. Minnesota Vikings: Did anyone besides Brett Favre( know Sidney Rice was this good?

4. Cincinnati Bengals: With Cedric Benson enjoying a career revival and Larry Johnson apparently on his way to Cincy, is Corey Dillon next?

5. Pittsburgh Steelers: Is it crazy to wonder whether poor kickoff coverage could cost this team a chance to repeat?

6. New England Patriots: Does this hairless thug who threw down an NFL Films cameraman while escorting Bill Belichick to the locker room think we live in a repressive Third World country ruled by a ruthless dictator – or does he just think the NFL is its own, sovereign nation?

7. Arizona Cardinals: Is Beanie Wells becoming a big-time back – and, if so, how scary could this offense be come January?

8. Dallas Cowboys: Yo, Jason Garrett: Did Marion Barber get tossed from Lambeau after the first quarter for making an inappropriate comment to Mike McCarthy, or did it just seem that way?

9. San Diego Chargers: How terrific of a play-caller is Norv Turner when he gets in rhythm – and was Sunday’s effort against the Eagles one of his all-time best in terms of keeping an opposing defense off-balance?

10. Denver Broncos: OK, so maybe it’s time to consider the possibility that Josh McDaniels doesn’t have all the answers?

11. Baltimore Ravens: If Monday night’s game had been extended to 40 quarters, would they still have shut out the Browns?

12. Philadelphia Eagles: If a team can’t convert in short-yardage situations – no matter how much talent it features on offense – can it be considered a legitimate contender?

13. Atlanta Falcons: After Sunday’s game in Carolina, to which his team took buses, did coach Mike Smith ponder telling his players they had to hitchhike home?

14. Houston Texans: Are they ready for another Vince Young homecoming – and, if Sunday’s game against the Titans goes into overtime, should they try to guard against this?

15. Green Bay Packers: Was Sunday’s performance a season-saver – and, if so, what took these guys so long to crank it up?

16. New York Giants: Is this Jerry Reese’s way of putting pressure on Tom Coughlin?

17. Miami Dolphins: Is Ricky Williams(notes) ready to become a workhorse once more?

18. Carolina Panthers: Will Jake Delhomme’s season get even more miserable now that Pro Bowl tackle Jordan Gross is out for the season – and can this team sneak into the playoffs in spite of it?

19. Jacksonville Jaguars: When Maurice Jones-Drew apologized to fantasy owners for not scoring that late touchdown in the Jags’ victory over the Jets because of strategic considerations, how many thousands of them took him literally?

20. New York Jets: After Mark Sanchez(notes) showed up to Sunday’s postgame press conference with a prepared statement, how awesome would it have been an Academy Awards-style orchestra had drowned him out?

21. Tennessee Titans: When you’re an 86-year-old rich guy whose team is winning a football game, is there any reason not to wear your feelings on your middle fingers?

22. San Francisco 49ers: Don’t you get the feeling that Michael Crabtree’s breakout game is coming any week now?

23. Chicago Bears: Did Jay Cutler send a thank-you gift basket to Bill Belichick Sunday night (and, if so, was it intercepted)?

24. Washington Redskins: After coach Jim Zorn informed him of his intention to run the creative fourth-down fake that led to a second-quarter touchdown, did designated play-caller Sherm Lewis yell, “Bingo!?”

25. Seattle Seahawks: Yo, Nate Burleson, can you also guarantee that Stanford will defeat Cal on Saturday?

26. Buffalo Bills: What do Terrell Owens and former Packers coach Mike Sherman have in common?

27. Kansas City Chiefs: After watching the way Jamaal Charle ran the ball Sunday, don’t you wonder why he wasn’t starting ahead of Larry Johnson from the get-go?

28. St. Louis Rams: Are Rams receivers becoming like Spinal Tap drummers?

29. Oakland Raiders: Has there been a funnier line about the Silver and Black recently than this one about a perilous trapeze act from incisive San Francisco Chronicle columnist Scott Ostler?

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Is it possible that, contrary to the pre-draft hype, Josh Freeman(notes) is the most polished rookie quarterback of this year’s class?

31. Detroit Lions: When I described the Lions’ defense as “toothless” on Sunday, did you realize I was being literal?

32. Cleveland Browns: In retrospect, instead of skipping the opening kickoff, shouldn’t those Dawg Pound dudes have advocated a boycott of Monday’s entire game?

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