NFL Free Agent Signing Season
Jets will make a strong push for Samuel

by Alex Marvez


This is the first in an eight-part series analyzing each division as the February 29 start of the free-agent signing period approaches. Featured today: The AFC East.

Note: Salary cap figures will be adjusted in late February once restricted free-agent tenders and calculations on contract clauses from 2007 like incentives are finalized. The league-wide 2008 cap is set at $116 million.


New England (18-1)

Looking back: The Patriots enjoyed one of the greatest seasons in NFL history except for one thing: Falling to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII. "The year was good, but that's the one game you don't want to lose," Patriots guard Logan Mankins lamented last week at the Pro Bowl.

Biggest need area — Linebackers: Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi will be 39 and 35 years old respectively entering next season. Both are contemplating retirement and have no clear-cut replacements waiting in the wings. Seau and Bruschi were solid inside against the run in 2007 but are growing increasingly susceptible in pass coverage. As evidenced by the blockbuster signings of Adalius Thomas and Rosevelt Colvin, the Patriots have shown a willingness to spend big in free agency on veteran linebackers. Potential targets this off-season could include Pittsburgh's Clark Haggans or the Jets' Victor Hobson, both of whom have extensive experience in a 3-4 scheme.

Player/coach to watch — Bill Belichick: If any more instances of illegal videotaping surface a la Spygate, Belichick would be facing a year-long suspension from NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. The most likely replacements on New England's staff would be assistant head coach/offensive line Dante Scarnecchia, defensive coordinator Dean Pees or offensive coordinator Josh McDaniel.

Projected cap space — $5 million: The Patriots are expected to create much more room in upcoming weeks through contract restructures. Some of that space may be used to find a veteran cornerback if Asante Samuel leaves as expected and top reserve Randall Gay draws interest as a restricted free agent. Wide receiver Randy Moss seems certain to garner a franchise tag of $7.8 million while the Patriots mull offering a long-term extension.

2008 outlook — Excellent: Most of New England's top players are under contract, including 2007 NFL MVP Tom Brady. The Patriots also can get some immediate help in the draft even though their own first-round pick was stripped following the Spygate scandal. New England owns the No. 7 overall pick acquired from San Francisco, which could used to find an impact rookie or traded to add multiple picks and fill more needs.


Buffalo (7-9)

AFC East off-season outlook
* Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins
* New England Patriots | New York Jets

Looking back: On paper, the Bills had no business being in playoff contention into December. But Buffalo remained competitive despite starting a rookie quarterback (Trent Edwards) and ending the season with 17 players on injured reserve. Bills coach Dick Jauron deserves credit for keeping Buffalo from tanking after a 1-4 start and having to face a near-fatal spinal injury suffered by tight end Kevin Everett in the season-opener.

Biggest need area — A compliment to wide receiver Lee Evans: The lack of a No. 2 receiver with speed allowed defenses to double-team Evans, who finished with 27 fewer catches and 443 less receiving yards than in 2006. Adding at least one tall wideout is a must for red-zone purposes. The Bills also continue to get little from their tight ends in the passing game.

Player/coach to watch — J.P. Losman: Relegated to a backup role behind Edwards, Losman has made noise about wanting a trade. Losman's four-year NFL career is marked by inconsistent play, but he does have a strong arm and could benefit from a fresh start.

Projected cap space — $25.3 million: This figure could grow even more when the cap numbers are finalized, but that may not affect the modus operandi of a small-market team faced with an uncertain financial future. While they made a splash last year by signing guard Derrick Dockery to a contract with $18.5 million guaranteed, the Bills are unlikely to embark on a lavish spending spree in 2008. Buffalo has used cap space in recent years to extend the contracts of quality players like tackle Jason Peters, punter Brian Moorman and defensive end Aaron Schobel. Evans may receive the same treatment.

2008 outlook — Fair: The decade-long turnover at offensive coordinator continues with Turk Schonert promoted from quarterbacks coach to replace the departed Steve Fairchild (Colorado State). Schonert will have the chance to further open up Buffalo's offense with Edwards entering his second season. Defensively, the Bills must add bulk at defensive tackle and could use another cornerback with cover-two skills.


New York Jets (4-12)


Looking back: Even if their signals were illegally videotaped, the Jets never recovered from their season-opening loss to New England. New York's offense struggled with both Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens at quarterback, while the defense only produced 21 turnovers and frequently failed to generate much pressure.

Biggest need area — Offensive line: After refusing his demand for a pay raise, the Jets made the mistake of trading left guard Pete Kendall without having an adequate replacement. Right tackle Anthony Clement also is on his last legs as a starter. New offensive line coach Bill Callahan needs some new tools to work with.

Player/coach to watch — Pennington: Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum recently said he plans for Pennington to return and compete against Clemens for a starting spot. The Jets, though, seem willing to trade Pennington — and his $4.8 million base salary — if another team makes an attractive offer. Should a deal be struck before the draft, New York may strongly consider using a first-day pick on a quarterback even though a 2006 second-round choice was used on Clemens.

Projected cap space — $27 million: With so much room available and a need at cornerback, Samuel already is being rumored as a Jets free-agent target. Wide receiver Laveranues Coles is in line for a restructured contract after an injury-plagued 2007 campaign. Linebacker Victor Hobson appears likely to leave via free agency.

2008 outlook — Fair: In a division featuring two teams (Miami and Buffalo) that haven't reached the playoffs since at least 2002, New York could quickly become a postseason contender again. For that to happen, the Jets must add speed at the skill positions in the off-season and hope outside linebacker Bryan Thomas can rebound from a disappointing year. New York will be able to add an impact player with the draft's No. 6 overall pick.


Miami (1-15)

Looking back: If we must. The 2007 Dolphins rank among the NFL's worst teams this decade. The squad was so bad that coach Cam Cameron and general manager Randy Mueller were canned less than a year after Dolphins owner H. Wayne Huizenga hand-picked them to run the franchise. In defense of Cameron and Mueller, a roster that already lacked talent from previous poor drafts was further crippled by extensive injuries. This now becomes the problem of a new brain trust — coach Tony Sporano, general manager Jeff Ireland and overseer Bill Parcells.

Biggest need area — Quarterback: Eight seasons have passed since Dan Marino's retirement and the Dolphins still don't have an answer under center. Cleo Lemon, who started seven games after Trent Green suffered a season-ending concussion, is set to become an unrestricted free agent. John Beck, a 2007 second-round draft pick, showed little during his starting opportunities and has no ties with the new Dolphins administration. Green, who turns 38 in July, was released on Monday after missing 19 games the past two years because of head injuries. Holding the draft's No. 1 overall pick, expect Miami to closely monitor Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan's upcoming workouts.

Player/coach to watch — Middle linebacker Zach Thomas: Thomas has indicated he wants to keep playing despite a series of concussions that prematurely ended his 2007 season. Even if medically cleared, the risk of a recurrence may prompt Miami to demand the 34-year-old Thomas to accept a pay cut from his scheduled $5.65 million base salary.

Projected cap space — $21.6 million: Thinking he had more long-term job security, Mueller made personnel decisions last off-season designed to clear cap space for 2008. Still, the Dolphins have so many issues that even the room Mueller created isn't enough to fill every hole. Because of their familiarity with Dallas' personnel, don't be surprised if Miami takes a stab at some of the Cowboys' pending free agents like left tackle Flozell Adams, safety Ken Hamlin, and cornerbacks Jacques Reeves and Nate Jones. Re-signing right guard Rex Hadnot before the signing period begins should be Miami's top priority.

2008 outlook — Poor: Three previous changes in personnel and coaching philosophies since 2004 have left the Dolphins a mess. Parcells and Co. will need until at least 2009 to make Miami a viable playoff contender.

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