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AFC East Final Word: Jets at Colts
By Tim Graham
January 23, 2010
1. Rex Ryan doesn't have a favorable history against Peyton Manning. Ryan established his reputation as a defensive genius during his decade with the Baltimore Ravens, and despite overseeing some of the greatest units of this generation, he has been unsuccessful in trying to solve Manning. When the Jets beat the Colts in Week 16, Manning left the game with a 15-10 lead. Backup quarterback Curtis Painter should be charged with that loss, much like a reliever with a blown save. Eliminating that game, Manning has gone 6-1 against a Ryan-influenced defense. Manning has posted big points, too. Only once have the Colts been held to under 20 points, when they scored 15 to eliminate the Ravens from the 2006 playoffs.
2. Time of possession will be critical for the Jets. The Miami Dolphins established the offensive blueprint for defeating the Colts when they met on Monday night in Week 2. The Dolphins nearly knocked them off by dominating in time of possession, obnoxiously holding onto the ball for 45 minutes, 7 seconds. Problem is, the Dolphins' defense played like cardboard cutouts and surrendered 10.2 yards per play in a 27-23 loss. The Jets' defense can contain the Colts better than the Dolphins. If the Jets maintain no worse than a one-score deficit, then their offense will be able to keep handing off to Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones against the 24th-ranked run defense. The benefit would be twofold: It would prevent Mark Sanchez from being forced into a shootout and will keep Manning off the field.
3. The Jets can't expect to get multiple big breaks again. A lot of talk in the Jets' locker room this week justified the notion they can go toe-to-toe with the Colts because they played them so tightly a month ago in Indianapolis before Manning and other starters were removed from the game. But the Jets can't deny the repeated blessings they received before then. How often can they count on Brad Smith to return a kickoff 106 yards? What about blocking another extra point? Can the Jets count on another below-standard Manning performance and expect him to misfire with Reggie Wayne as often as he did the last time? No, no and no.
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AFC South Final Word: Jets at Colts
By Paul Kuharsky
January 23, 2010
1. One big difference from the first game: Pierre Garcon did not play in the first matchup, and Rex Ryan said the Jets saw a lot of two tight-end sets from Indianapolis on Dec. 27 before the Colts shut it down. Ryan’s not expecting that this time. He knows the Colts will line up predominantly in three-wide receiver formations featuring Reggie Wayne, Garcon and Austin Collie. With Dallas Clark in the mix, the Colts hope to get the Jets in nickel and dime and test the depth of their secondary. Look for some short stuff to Collie over the middle as an alternative to runs if the Colts can’t move it much on the ground.
2. Keep manageable downs and distances on offense: The Colts know they probably aren’t going to do a lot of damage running the ball, but they will seek to maintain some sort of balance. Joseph Addai does pretty well on runs that appear to be shut down, wriggling for at least a couple yards. And Manning and the entire operation need second-and-eight, not second-and-12. Rushes for losses and sacks are the sort of setbacks that can get the Colts' precision offense off track and give the Jets' defense a spark.
3. Inexperience won’t kill these kickers: Kickers have made just 57.7 percent of their field goals in the playoffs. (Check out colleague Jeffri Chadiha's story on the topic.) That mark was 81.3 percent during the regular season. But the Jets have Jay Feely in his ninth season and the Colts have Matt Stover in his 20th. Feely is 9 for 12 in eight postseason games, including 2-for-2 this postseason. Stover, filling in for Adam Vinatieri, is 19 of 24 in the playoffs overall and is also 2-for-2 this postseason. Looking for a long one at the end? Peyton Manning will likely have to give Stover a few more yards than Mark Sanchez will have to give Feely, who’s younger and stronger.
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