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NASCAR talking Chase elimination
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By Jenna Fryer
September 13, 2010
Richmond, VA — Now that the Chase field is officially on, word comes that NASCAR is giving serious consideration to an elimination format as a possible change to its playoff system.
But is that really a big deal?
This already happens when accidents, mechanical failures or one poor performance takes drivers out of contention without the help of a rulebook.
What NASCAR really wants is drama, or as NASCAR chairman Brian France has talked about, a Game 7-like atmosphere. It would take more than a simple elimination process to guarantee this. That said, NASCAR is tossing around various forms of an elimination process and apparently has discussed the ideas in greater detail with teams.
Elimination is an idea I’ve supported since the first set of Chase changes prior to the 2007 season, primarily because I liked the idea of making the middle portion of the playoff more meaningful to the drivers at the back end of the standings.
Say you’re a Tony Stewart fan and your driver gets wrecked in race No. 1 at New Hampshire. His title chances are essentially over with nine-plus races to go. This is what happened in the inaugural Chase in 2004 when Robby Gordon’s retaliation toward Greg Biffle caused a chain-reaction wreck that collected Stewart and Jeremy Mayfield. The race was 64 laps old and Stewart’s title hopes were dashed a mere hour into the Chase.
So now the driver has virtually no chance of winning the title, and fans struggle to find a reason to tune into the next nine races.
But what if there were gradual eliminations, and a driver had to race hard each week to remain in the Chase field? What if two drivers were kicked out of the Chase every two races, setting up a four-driver championship two-race run?
Of course, eliminations alone wouldn’t maintain drama. It does no good to send four drivers into the final two races if the fourth-place driver is still 100-plus points behind. The entire points system would need an overhaul – a resetting of the points following each elimination – and sources indicate that’s being looked at closely by NASCAR leadership.
Stewart actually alluded to that Saturday night as the 12 Chase drivers discussed what it will take to win this year’s championship. Stewart thinks consistency will be key because of how the points system is set up.
“You could go out and win four or five races, and have one bad day and lose the championship,” he said. “The fact that you can get 43rd-place points, that can kill you better than the wins can help you. All it takes is one bad day and you’ve lost your opportunity to go to Vegas [for the championship banquet]. Until they give the 12 Chase drivers their own points structure, that’s the reality you have to face.”
Stewart’s right. When scored under their own system, a driver can vault right back into contention by winning a race. Isn’t that the way it’s supposed to be anyway? Still, NASCAR has been reluctant to discuss a separate points system.
It will be interesting to see how the next 10 weeks play out and, if there is a void of drama, if NASCAR decides the Chase needs to be tweaked yet again.
Somebody is going to leave New Hampshire on Sunday night with their title hopes already dashed. But if he had a chance to rebound the following Sunday at Dover and subsequently survive the first elimination, then he’d be right back in contention when the points would be reset. Not only would that make the middle Chase races a lot more interesting, but also it would keep more drivers in the title hunt longer.
Yes, it’s manufactured excitement. But so is the entire Chase concept, and it’s not going anywhere.
Here are some of the highlights from the championship contenders at Richmond:
1. Denny Hamlin sent a message:
With his series-best sixth win of the season, Hamlin broke the tie with Johnson to grab the top seed in the Chase. The win snapped a month-long slump for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver, and got him pointed back in the right direction headed into the final 10.
We still don’t know if Hamlin can actually seize the opportunity in front of him. His confidence is certainly surging, as it was this time last year when he knocked down the win at Richmond. But that didn’t stop him from struggling at Dover, making a mistake at California and didn’t eliminate JGR’s persistent reliability issues that came into play at Charlotte and Talladega. Other than that, Hamlin was pretty good, winning twice and knocking out six top-five finishes in the seven Chase races he finished.
Now it’s up to him to avoid a repeat of those issues that kept him from legitimately challenging Johnson. This will be Hamlin’s fifth time in the Chase, but the first time he’ll start in the lead. The game plan, crew chief Mike Ford said, is to race each week as if they are 40th in the standings, and that go-for-broke attitude just may work.
But it will be on Hamlin to maintain his focus and remain mentally strong for 10 consecutive weeks. Johnson is incredible at tuning out the distractions and not getting caught up in the mind games of other drivers. Though Hamlin did shown grit when he shrugged off a torn ACL, it’s still to be seen how much he’s actually matured on the track and if he can truly go toe-to-toe with Johnson.
2. Kevin Harvick is no longer the points leader, but doesn’t seem very worried about it:
His 228-point lead over Kyle Busch was erased when the checkered flag fell at Richmond, and Harvick goes into New Hampshire 20 points behind Hamlin in the standings.
Still Harvick seems to have the right peace of mind going into the Chase, and it doesn’t seem to be lip service.
He said he’s not aware of what any other driver is doing right now, which is the same strategy Johnson used last year in claiming his fourth title.
“I have kind of shut myself off to the whole racing world other than ourselves,” Harvick said. “I feel like barring things that we can’t control, I think we have as good of a chance to win as we have ever had, and it is in our best interest to concentrate on ourselves. I want to do our own thing and just concentrate on that.”
Harvick doesn’t get enough credit for how cool and calculating he is. He has supreme confidence, is a master manipulator and doesn’t seem to care what anyone thinks. That toughness, that edge, that arrogance is going to be an important part of his championship push.
3. What about Johnson?
He’s got to be feeling like the forgotten guy in the Chase. Despite being the four-time defending champ, most of the focus is on figuring out which driver has the best shot at beating him.
Is winning five straight championships realistic? No, but nothing Johnson has done during his reign of dominance seemed realistic before he actually did it. Still he’s managed to accomplish nearly every goal he’s ever set in NASCAR, and five straight is now on his radar even if nobody wants to openly discuss his chances.
“People can draw conclusions however they want, and I’ve never been one to play into any of that stuff,” he said. “I’ve just decided to let things take care of itself on the track. If guys think we are vulnerable, it’s my job to show up at Loudon, qualify on the pole and win the race. I’m not concerned about what people think of my race team and where I’m at and what kind of threat we are for the championship. I’m just more concerned about going out and getting the damn job done.”
And that’s why Johnson is the four-time defending champion.
4. Leave it to Jeff Burton to put it all in perspective:
The most eloquent man in NASCAR summed up the stakes perfectly at Richmond, where he pumped up the Chase and what the next 10 weeks means to NASCAR.
“This is the most fun 10 weeks of the year. This is what you live for,” he said. “Every time I get in the Chase, I tell myself I waited my whole life to be in this position, so that’s a hell of a cool thing. We tend to get caught up in the pressure of it, but man, we’re playing a game, and it’s supposed to be fun.”
Burton was once the Hamlin, Harvick and Carl Edwards of the garage, the guy everyone anointed the next champion. But here he is, 43 years old and still searching for that first title.
The difference, though, is that just like Mark Martin a year ago, Burton is wise enough to understand the intricacies involved with racing for a championship. He knows it will take an all-around effort from Richard Childress Racing, his No. 31 team and himself.
He said his family knows it’s “go time.”
“Racing is going to come first here for the next few months,” he said. “Who is going to be able to go fast enough? Who consistently is going to be able to go fast? Every team is going to have problems, OK? Every team is going to have to deal with adversity. But who deals with it best? Who has to deal with the most adversity? Who goes the fastest? Those are the questions that everybody is wondering. It is not something that I spend a lot of time on because I know that all I can do is control us.”
5. What about the bottom half of the field?
Everyone seems to think the Chase is wide open this year, but it’s hard to believe the champion won’t win at least one of the next 10 races. And if that plays out, the odds are against half the field.
Jeff Gordon is in a career-worst losing streak dating back to his lone win of 2009, at Texas in April. Edwards and Burton are winless since 2008. Clint Bowyer, with two career wins, hasn’t been to victory lane since ’08 either. And Matt Kenseth has been all over the map since his consecutive wins to open the ’09 season.
Then there is Greg Biffle, who suffered through myriad chances at Richmond and admitted after that he didn’t like his championship chances. Despite two wins this season, Kurt Busch has been inconsistent of late. And though Stewart finally got his first win of the season two weeks ago at Atlanta, he followed it with a lackluster run at Richmond, albeit he was racing a mere eight hours after his grandfather passed away.
Regardless of the zero in his win column, Gordon believes it’s too early to dismiss anyone from contention. But, he said, he expects a favorite to emerge.
“Maybe there’s no clear-cut favorite right now, the way the past 26 races have gone,” he said. “But I’ve seen how the team that really is going to go win this championship seems to be pretty clear in the past, anyway, four or five races into the Chase, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens again this year.
“The thing that is exciting is that it’s really hard to predict who that is going to be.”
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