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2009 MLB Predictions
By Jeff Passan, Yahoo! Sports
Another year, another safe-deposit box full of misdeeds and regrets. No, baseball players aren't perfect, and it is in their flaws that we relate to them.
So do not be shocked to learn that your favorite baseball figures, too, make New Year's resolutions. They are the easiest way to remember the past while looking forward – though, admittedly, the needle marks and back acne are apt reminders.
Alex Rodriguez: I resolve not to cheat on my wife with strippers who look like they wear acid-washed jeans, opt out of my contract in the middle of the World Series, gag in the playoffs again, play slum lord to the disenfranchised and then act contrite during a softball Katie Couric interview. In other words, I resolve to not be myself.
Paul Byrd: I resolve to find a new dentist, one that recognizes the difference between tooth decay and moral decay.
Joe Torre: I resolve to rip the Yankee organization only in a grandfatherly tone, because any other way would seem catty.
Tom Lasorda: I resolve to stay away from those naughty ho, ho, ho's after doing the Santa Lasorda routine at Dodger Stadium holiday party.
Bobby Cox: I resolve to get ejected for all the right reasons, which include balls and strikes, bad calls on the bases, close plays at the plate, umpires breathing wrong, butterflies flapping their wings, Joe Morgan mispronouncing a name, a keyboard being used somewhere in America and photosynthesis occurring.
George Mitchell: I resolve to get a shipment of HGH for those damn wrinkles in my forehead.
Kirk Radomski: I resolve to write a book that refutes Jose Canseco's assertion. I'll call it "Why Steroids Don't Work: The Story of Josias Manzanillo, Phil Hiatt, Cody McKay, Adam Piatt, Adam Riggs, Bart Miadich and Nook Logan."
Brian McNamee: It's a good thing I'm not going to jail, because I resolve to no longer stick objects in men's butts.
Roger Clemens: I resolve to find the real killers.
Andy Pettitte: I resolve to pitch Hallmark a whole new line of you-screwed-your-best-friend cards.
Jim Bowden: I resolve to revolutionize scouting by targeting men on the FBI 10 Most Wanted list. Heard Whitey Bulger's got a sick gyroball.
Elijah Dukes: I resolve to commit only misdemeanors.
Hank Steinbrenner: I resolve to rehire George Costanza. He would get the Santana trade done.
Barry Bonds: I resolve to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me God, and, big man, I hope you can help me like steroids did.
Jonathan Papelbon: I resolve to treat my dog to obedience lessons and myself to dance lessons.
Paul Lo Duca: I resolve to use personal stationery for all future steroid purchases.
Scott Boras: I resolve to resume imbibing in the blood of virgins to regain my power.
Kosuke Fukudome: I resolve to greet opposing fans with a middle finger when they intentionally mangle my last name.
Willie Randolph: I resolve to win the National League East.
Jimmy Rollins: I resolve to make Willie Randolph look like a fool again.
Jeffrey Loria: I resolve to legally change my name to Ebenezer Scrooge.
Gary Matthews Jr., Jose Guillen, Rick Ankiel, Troy Glaus, Jerry Hairston Jr. and 80 or so others: We resolve to just say no to drugs. And by no, we mean no, not in that vein, in this one.
Jose Offerman: I resolve to bat with a scythe, just in case a pitcher tries to throw at me again.
Brett Myers: I resolve to fight children, elderly women, dwarves, cancer patients, drunks and all other comers, seeing as I've already punched my wife in the face and threatened a sportswriter.
Tony La Russa: I resolve to learn the alphabet.
Alyssa Milano: I resolve to not date another ballplayer.
Brad Penny, Barry Zito, Russell Martin, Carl Pavano: We resolve not to date Alyssa Milano again.
Mike Hargrove: I resolve to reveal the true reason I left Seattle in the middle of such a great season. I was afraid Mariner Moose would go after me next.
Rafael Palmeiro: I resolve to "explain myself."
Rep. Henry Waxman: I resolve, as chairman of the House Committee on Government Reform, to solve only the United States' true problems, such as the subprime mortgage mess, the impending Social Security crisis and, of course, that nation-bending, economy-crushing, era-defining scourge, steroids.
Bud Selig: I resolve to do the right thing this time – follow Jason Tyner every game as he inches closer to hitting the second home run of his 1,356-at-bat career.
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2009 Atlanta Braves Preview
A long and tedious off-season for the Atlanta Braves has almost come to an end. Atlanta fans saw the Braves improve their starting rotation with the acquisitions of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami. The Braves also added depth to their bench by resigning Greg Norton, Omar Infante and David Ross.
STARTING PITCHING
Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24 ERA, 34 starts) will begin the season as Atlanta’s ace while Javier Vazquez (12-16, 4.67, 33 starts) will hold the second spot in the rotation. Tom Glavine (2-4, 5.54 ERA, 13 starts) will likely fill the third spot if he is resigned in the coming days. The fourth and fifth spots in the rotation will be held by Kenshin Kawakami (9-5, 2.30 ERA, 20 games) and Jair Jurrjens (13-10, 3.68 ERA, 31 starts).
If Tom Glavine does not resign then the final spot will be up for grabs between Jorge Campillo (8-7, 3.91 ERA, 25 starts), Charlie Morton (4-8, 6.15 ERA, 15 starts), Jo-Jo Reyes (3-11, 5.81 ERA, 22 starts) and Tommy Hanson (8-4, 3.03 ERA, 18 starts at AA). Atlanta has a strong rotation despite having the potential to be entirely right-handed. If Glavine resigns it is almost certain he would be placed in the third spot to break up the right-handed pitchers.
Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez will eat the majority of the innings while Kenshin Kawakami is more like a shot in the dark. Kawakami was signed out of Japan but could eat a decent amount of innings. Jair Jurrjens will try and avoid a down year after having a very successful rookie season while Jorge Campillo and Tommy Hanson look to be the favorites to win the final spot. Campillo pitched very well for Atlanta last year while Hanson was named MVP of the Arizona Fall League, the first pitcher to ever do so. Hanson dominated nearly ever team last season and appears to be major league ready.
BULLPEN
Atlanta’s bullpen could arguably be their biggest strength. Peter Moylan and Rafael Soriano should be healthy by the beginning of the year, which would be a big boost for a run down bullpen. Blaine Boyer had a long year as he had to eat more innings than first expected with the losses of Moylan and Soriano to injury. Mike Gonzalez came back strong from Tommy John surgery to claim the closers role from Soriano. Gonzalez will likely start the season as the team’s closer. Will Ohman was arguably the best reliever for Atlanta last year but has yet to sign with a team. Atlanta’s shortage of money could force him to sign elsewhere.
INFIELD
Atlanta’s infield could also be another strong point of the team. Third baseman Chipper Jones is coming off his first career batting title while catcher Brian McCann is coming off of his third All-Star appearance. Newly acquired first baseman Casey Kotchman should be settled in and produce the way Atlanta first envisioned him to. Kotchman has the potential to hit over .300 and drive in over 100 runs.
Shortstop Yunel Escobar has survived trade rumors and hopefully has learned to control his emotions a little better. Escobar is a potential All-Star but sometimes lets his emotions get the best of him. Second baseman Kelly Johnson was also mentioned in trade talks but should be the starter after spring training. Johnson needed to improve on his defense over the off-season as well as cut down on his strikeouts.
OUTFIELD
The outfield was the biggest disappointment last year for the Braves. Jeff Francoeur had a mediocre season at best while only hitting 11 home runs. Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco split time in centerfield for part of the year but provided little power. Matt Diaz spent most of the season on the disabled list, which let Brandon Jones have time to shine. Jones didn’t impress much but did show glimpses of power. The centerfielder job is up for grabs between Blanco, Anderson and Jordan Schafer. Schafer could be the early favorite as he plays very good defense but provides more offense than Blanco and Anderson.
OUTLOOK
Atlanta made themselves a contender with free agent signings but are not the favorite to win the division. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are the early favorites but Atlanta can make some noise in the division. New York has made considerable moves to strengthen a weak bullpen while Philadelphia lost J.C. Romero to a 50 game suspension. Expect Atlanta to win between 75 and 85 games.
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2009 CLEVELAND INDIANS PREVIEW
2008 was a mixed bag for the Indians, as they struggled out of the gate, ran into serious injury issues and fell out of playoff contention early. At midseason, they dealt longtime rotation stalwart CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers and began a new era. However, as Sabathia was leaving, starter Cliff Lee had the Major League’s biggest turnaround and won the AL Cy Young award, keeping the trophy in Cleveland (Sabathia was the 2007 winner).
There is plenty of cause for optimism in 2009 aside from Lee’s resurgence. The Indians played very well down the stretch, finishing 81-81, which surprised most casual observers who had written them off after their awful start. Indians fans are also overjoyed that former closer Joe Borowski (who was abysmal much of the year) is now departed and has been replaced by former Cub Kerry Wood. If the Indians can solidify the back end of their rotation and simply stay healthy then they should compete in 2009.
STARTING PITCHING
The Indians only have two guaranteed starters going into Spring Training. Cliff Lee (22-3, 2.54 ERA, 31 starts, 213 IP last year) is the defending Cy Young winner and staff ace and he will be joined by Fausto Carmona (8-7, 5.44 ERA, 22 starts), who struggled at times last year with injuries and command. Carmona is expected to bounce back in a big way this year. The back end of the rotation has three open spots up for grabs between five candidates: Aaron Laffey (5-7, 4.23 ERA, 16 starts) and Anthony Reyes (4-2, 2.76 ERA, 6 starts) seem to be leading for two of the spots but Jeremy Sowers (4-9, 5.58 ERA, 22 starts), Carl Pavano (4-2, 5.77 7 starts) and Scott Lewis (4-0, 2.63 ERA, 4 starts) will all push for a spot as well. There is a lot of talent on hand for the Indians to build on but they will need to build some consistency among their 3-4-5 starters.
BULLPEN
Cleveland’s bullpen was very good last year, with one major exception. Closer Joe Borowski gave up a lot of runs early but managed to close enough games to hold his job for a few months before absolutely imploding. After he was designated for assignment, the bullpen solidified but a closer with a 7.56 ERA and 6 saves after 3 months is a hard thing to rebound from. Luckily, the Indians signed Kerry Wood (5-4, 3.26 ERA, 34 saves last year) this offseason and he should be a huge upgrade in the ninth inning. The Indians have two excellent setup men in Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez and should enjoy a significantly more stable bullpen this season. In fact, the Indians’ bullpen is as good as any in the division.
INFIELD
The Indians have a very solid infield. Catcher Victor Martinez (.278, 2 HR, 35 RBI, .337 OBP) missed half of the season last year and wasn’t 100% when he played. However, he is one of the best in baseball and the Indians should really benefit from a healthy season from him. First baseman Ryan Garko (.273, 14 HR, 90 RBI, .346 OBP) broke out last year and is a very solid hitter in the middle of the lineup. At second base, Asdrubal Cabrera (.259, 6 HR, 47 RBI, .346) is a solid contributor and shortstop Jhonny Peralta (.276, 23 HR, 89 RBI) is a dangerous hitter. The Indians also upgraded at third base during the offseason, acquiring Mark DeRosa (.285, 21 HR, 87 RBI, .376 OBP) from Chicago. Expect DeRosa to solidify a long-running issue for the Indians at the hot corner. Another major upgrade for Cleveland will be the return of Designated Hitter (and occasional first baseman) Travis Hafner (.197, 5 HR, 24 RBI, .305 OBP) to full health. Hafner had driven in over 100 runs for four consecutive seasons before having shoulder issues last year. Cleveland’s infield is the AL Central’s best.
OUTFIELD
The Indians boast perhaps the best centerfielder in all of baseball in superstar Grady Sizemore (.268, 33 HR, 90 RBI, .374 OBP). Sizemore is a dangerous hitter and is also a defensive virtuoso. However, there are questions about the corner outfield positions. Rightfielder Shin-Soo Choo (.309, 14 HR, 66 RBI, .397 OBP) was impressive in a half season’s work but will need to prove his worth over the long haul. In left field, Ben Fransisco (.266, 15 HR, 54 RBI, .332 OBP) will probably get more at bats than David Dellucci (.238, 11 HR, 47 RBI, .307 OBP) but neither strikes much fear into the hearts of pitchers. Like usual, the Indians will probably be looking for an upgrade at the corner outfield positions come July.
OUTLOOK
The Indians won 81 games last season despite major injuries to two of their best hitters and one of their best starters, an ineffective closer, and a midseason deal which shipped their best starter for the better part of the last decade out of town. That’s pretty impressive. Simply put, the Indians should be an absolute juggernaut at the plate this year if they’re healthy. Furthermore, their bullpen should be solid all year. The big question is their final three rotation spots: If they can get solid production then expect the Indians to seriously contend for the division. However, a more realistic outlook for the season would be 85-90 wins and a runner up finish in the American League Central Division.
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2009 DETROIT TIGERS PREVIEW
The 2009 season was a cacophony of injuries and errors for the Detroit Tigers. After upgrading their roster though a number of major moves, most observers pegged the Tigers to make a return to postseason action. However, injuries devastated their pitching staff and the season fell apart quickly and Detroit never came close to even sniffing a winning year.
This season looks brighter in Detroit. Their injury concerns are largely behind them and they made a few upgrades during the offseason, the most notable of which was the recent signing of former Arizona closer Brandon Lyon, who is expected to fulfill the same role in Detroit. Though the Tigers still have holes, they have the talent to compete in 2009.
STARTING PITCHING
The Tigers went into last season very confident. Their rotation, already swollen with young talent, had added former Marlins star Dontrelle Willis to the fold and was expected to be the team’s backbone. However, Wills struggled to the point where the Tigers actually demoted him and ended up with a 0-2 record and a 9.68 ERA in seven starts! That’s possibly the worst return on investment in baseball from last year considering Willis’ massive salary and pretty much sums up 2009 for the Tigers in a nutshell.
This year, the rotation should be better. Three spots will belong to Justin Verlander (11-17, 4.84 ERA, 201 IP in 33 starts last year), Armanda Gallarage (13-7, 3.73 ERA, 178 IP, 28 starts) and Edwin Jackson (14-11, 4.42 ERA, 182 IP, 31 starts). Verlander’s numbers in particular should see an improvement from last year as he is the most talented of the trio. The fourth rotation spot will belong to young star Jeremy Bonderman (3-4, 4.29 ERA, 12 starts) if he is sufficiently recovered from surgery to correct numbness in his pitching arm. However, should Bonderman begin the season on the Disabled List, there are a number of candidates to enter the rotation. Veteran Nate Robertson (7-11, 6.35 ERA, 28 starts) is the most experienced option, while Zach Minor (8-5, 4.27 ERA, 13 starts) impressed down the stretch last year after moving out of the bullpen. Willis is also expected to compete for a starting role as well. In short, the Tigers’ starting rotation has a lot of question marks going into the season but the talent is there.
BULLPEN
Despite the rotation’s question marks, there shouldn’t be many concerned with the Tigers’ bullpen. Former Diamondback Brandon Lyon (4.70 ERA, 26 Saves) should step in as the closer and despite his relatively high ERA he should be effective in that role. Setting up will be flamethrower Joel Zumaya (3.47 ERA), who was yet another one of the Tigers’ injury casualties last season. Former closer Fernando Rodney (4.91 ERA, 13 saves) should also be an asset as he has historically been more effective in non-save situations. While no one is going to confuse the Tigers’ bullpen with the excellent groups in Cleveland and Minnesota, the Tigers should be more than adequate in the late innings and definitely are much better than last year’s group.
INFIELD
The Tigers gave their infield a facelift for the second consecutive offseason, acquiring catcher George Laird (.276, 6 HR, 41 RBI, .329 OBP with Texas) and shortstop Adam Everett and jettisoning former starter Edgar Renteria. Laird is expected to start and if Everett can finally shake the injury bug which has ailed him the past two seasons then he will likely replace Renteria. Everett is expected to compete with Ramon Santiago (.282, 4 HR, 18 RBI, .411 OBP in 56 games) at shortstop and the Tigers should get good production from the pair. The star of the infield is first baseman Miguel Cabrera (.292, 37 HR, 127 RBI, .349 OBP), who was the highlight of the 2009 season for Tiger fans. Expect him to remain a lethal weapon at the plate for years to come. Second baseman Placido Polanco (.307, 8 HR, 58 RBI, .350 OBP) is also a very solid contributor and should get on base a lot. At third, former catcher Brandon Inge (.205, 11 HR, 51 RBI, .303 OBP) is expected to start but the Tigers could find themselves looking for other options once July rolls around. Overall, there are few teams which can boast a player of Cabrera’s caliber in all of baseball but the left side of the infield is below average, at best.
OUTFIELD
Detroit has a solid outfield unit, highlighted by superstar Magglio Ordonez (.317, 21 HR, 103 RBI, .376 OBP), who is one of baseball’s best in right field. Centerfielder Curtis Granderson (.280, 22 HR, 66 RBI, .365 OBP) has plenty of pop as well and is a threat on the basepaths. In left field, Carlos Guillen (.286, 10 HR, 54 RBI, .376 OBP) is also a very solid player. Marcus Thames (.241, 25 HR, 56 RBI, .292 OBP) will also see time at all three positions when he isn’t the Designated Hitter. 40 year old Gary Sheffield (.225, 19 HR, 57 RBI, .326 OBP) could see some time as well but he is primarily a DH at this stage in his career. The Tigers’ outfield is a very good unit both defensively and at the plate and are definitely the team’s biggest strength.
OUTLOOK
The Tigers have a lot of talent on hand but they also have a lot of questions. Much like last year, it appears that the Tigers will have the ability to score a ton of runs but their pitching staff could hold them back. While their bullpen is definitely improved, their rotation still features a number of young hurlers who don’t have large track records of sustained success at the Major League level. Furthermore, their most talented pitcher (Bonderman) might begin the year on the DL. While the Tigers’ offense will keep them in a lot of games, their rotation will have to step up if the Tigers are going to significantly improve upon their 74-88 record of a year ago. Overall, realistic expectations for the Tigers are a finish somewhere around .500 and it doesn’t seem likely that they’ll compete with Cleveland and Minnesota for the division. An 81-81 record and a third place finish in the American League Central sounds about right.
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