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American League West hot-stove primer
By Steve Henson
December 5, 2009
Baseball’s winter meetings begin Monday in Indianapolis.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Holes to fill: The Angels must replace three major pieces: A cleanup hitter, a top-of-the-rotation starter and a table-setter. Simply re-signing the players who left as free agents isn’t viable because Vladimir Guerrero’s days as a premier slugger are over, Chone Figgins appears headed to the Mariners and John Lackey could price himself out of a return. Lackey already turned down a four-year, $72 million extension offer. Shoring up a bullpen that wore thin in the playoffs is another priority. The Angels will make an offer to Jason Bay and sign a free-agent starting pitcher if they can’t trade for Roy Halladay.
Trade winds: The Angels could part with one of their three quality middle infielders: Maicer Izturis, Howie Kendrick or Erick Aybar. Brandon Wood, a power-hitting infielder expected to compete for the third-base job, could be dangled, as could power-hitting left fielder Juan Rivera. Packaging a middle infielder, a power hitter and a young starting pitcher might be enough to get Halladay. The Angels would love to rid themselves of reserve outfielder Gary Matthews Jr. but would have to eat nearly all of the $23 million owed him the next two years.
Cash considerations: The Angels have eight arbitration-eligible players due substantial raises and also owe released reliever Justin Speier $5.25 million, limiting the money GM Tony Reagins can spend on free agents to less than $14 million for 2010.
By spring training... Despite their desire to keep payroll at about $113 million, the Angels likely will acquire one marquee player because they know standing pat would result only in another playoff loss to the Red Sox or Yankees. The Angels would gain two high draft picks with Figgins’ departure and two more if Lackey leaves.
TEXAS RANGERS
Holes to fill: For a team with uncertain ownership, a middling payroll and a tradition of mediocrity, the Rangers have a solid foundation. They can afford to wait, wait and wait some more, then sign a couple of free agents at bargain prices. Their needs aren’t overwhelming: a right-handed bat, a utility infielder and relief pitching.
Trade winds: Michael Young is due $16 million each of the next four years and is the Rangers’ only long-term salary commitment. Kevin Millwood is due $12 million in the last year of a five-year, $60 million deal and could be traded in July if the Rangers aren’t in contention. Milton Bradley could return if the Cubs swallow his contract.
Cash considerations: With Tom Hicks selling the team, the payroll can’t go up from the $68 million it has hovered at for four years. Young, Millwood and Ian Kinsler eat up $32.2 million. Josh Hamilton and Scott Feldman will command big raises in their first arbitration seasons.
By spring training... former agent Dennis Gilbert or Pittsburgh attorney Chuck Greenberg will be the owner. The Rangers will have added the least expensive slugger on the downside of his career from this list: Jermaine Dye, Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield(notes), Carlos Delgado and Troy Glaus.
SEATTLE MARINERS
Holes to fill: Adding accomplished hitters is difficult because most free-agent bats avoid expansive Safeco Field, but the Mariners have agreed to a deal with Chone Figgins for four years and $36 million. Re-signing Ken Griffey Jr. and shortstop Jack Wilson wasn’t going to cut it. Figgins can replace Adrian Beltre. The Mariners also would like to add a starting pitcher, and Rich Harden is a strong possibility in part because he hails from British Columbia and pitched well in Seattle when he was with the Athletics.
Trade winds: The Mariners have already depleted their farm system in ill-advised deals. They might need to look to the trade market to add a reliable bat and a decent catcher (Chris Snyder, anyone?).
Cash considerations: The Mariners would spend their available funds on Figgins. Re-signing Russell Branyan might still be an option.
By spring training... the Mariners will have made every effort to sign ace Felix Hernandez to a four-year extension for as much as $75 million to avoid losing him to free agency after the 2011 season.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Holes to fill: The A’s need stopgap hitters at the corner spots until top prospects Brett Wallace and Chris Carter prove they are ready for everyday duty. Shortstop, where Cliff Pennington is another unproven commodity, might also be a short-term need. Look for the A’s to sign an aging slugger such as Delgado, Sheffield or Glaus to a one-year deal.
Trade winds: The A’s picked up a potentially intriguing bat in corner infielder Jake Fox and a backup second baseman in Aaron Miles from the Cubs. Leave it to GM Billy Beane to come up with an even more creative deal, although he will be understandably loath to part with his top hitting prospects and doesn’t have many veterans who would entice trade partners.
Cash considerations: The existing payroll isn’t bad, with all commitments totaling less than $40 million. Beane could spend $20 million on free agents for 2010 and remain under last year’s $62 million payroll. But A’s sources say that kind of spending is highly unlikely.
By spring training... the A’s will still be looking for a way around the territorial rights obstacle that has kept them from moving to San Jose.
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Cuban Arguelles agrees to deal with Royals
By Jeff Passan
25 minutes ago
The small-market Kansas City Royals are betting big on a free agent they’ve seen pitch only a handful of times.
Noel Arguelles, a 19-year-old left-hander who last year defected from Cuba, agreed to a five-year, $7 million major league deal with the Royals on Saturday, according to a club source. Arguelles can earn up to $2 million in incentives as well. An official from another team interested in Arguelles said he had been informed a deal was close.
The contract is contingent upon Arguelles passing a physical. He remained in the Dominican Republic on Saturday and was expected to fly to Kansas City this week. The Royals still must clear a spot on their 40-man roster to make room for Arguelles.
Along with shortstop Jose Iglesias, Arguelles left the Cuban junior national team while in Canada last year. Iglesias signed a four-year, $8.2 million deal with Boston and impressed scouts in the Arizona Fall League. Meanwhile, the 6-foot-3, 200-pound Arguelles got into pitching shape, worked out in front of more than 100 people in the Dominican and had at least a half-dozen teams interested in signing him.
Kansas City pursued him hardest and continued its commitment to building a strong player-development program, particularly on the pitching side. The Royals have a half-dozen young arms who project to be major leaguers, including top prospect Mike Montgomery and this year’s first-round pick, Aaron Crow.
Royals general manager Dayton Moore spent the first decade of his career with Atlanta, where he watched the Braves dominate the NL East with superior pitching. Kansas City hopes to build around AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke with a farm system that has been infused with talent after years of skinflint draft budgets.
Arguelles’ talent is unquestioned. While his fastball during workouts wasn’t at the 94 mph it reached during his national team days, his changeup remains a potential out pitch and his curveball projects above average as well. Control is Arguelles’ biggest pitfall.
Scouts who saw his workout believe Arguelles will start the season at Class A. Because he is on a major-league deal, like Crow, his timetable could be accelerated once he acclimates to American baseball.
Aroldis Chapman, the 21-year-old left-hander who throws 100 mph and defected from Cuba in July, remains unsigned. Executives believe he could receive anywhere from $15 million to $30 million this offseason.
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American League East hot-stove primer
By Tim Brown
December 5, 2009
Baseball’s winter meetings begin Monday in Indianapolis. Yahoo! Sports will go division by division, providing a primer on each team’s needs and ability to satisfy them. (Teams listed in order of 2009 divisional finish.)
NEW YORK YANKEES
Holes to fill: In spite of their World Series championship, the Yankees could use help in places, but nothing they can’t throw a few dollars at. The obvious issues are in the rotation, in left field, in the bullpen ahead of Mariano Rivera (assuming Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes are going to the rotation) and at DH. Yankees problems, however, aren’t often like other people’s problems. They’ll have Andy Pettitte back, or jump in hard on John Lackey and/or Roy Halladay (or all of the above). They’ll have Johnny Damon back, and/or add Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. They’ll have Hideki Matsui back, or run the DH at-bats through the guys they already have.
Trade winds: They’ll be in on Halladay. And they’ll talk to the Tigers about Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson. They’ll talk to the Reds and Braves about pitching. In some cases, they’ll have to be prepared to part with Hughes or Chamberlain and outfielder Austin Jackson.
Cash considerations: Seriously now …
By spring training... They’ll have picked out a nice spot for that 27th banner.
BOSTON RED SOX
Holes to fill: Shortstop was a concern, given they went through four of them in ’09. So they signed Marco Scutaro, a nice player who should get on base a lot for the next couple years. But as David Orti and Mike Lowell begin their decline and Jason Bay tries out free agency, what GM Theo Epstein most needs is a run producer. Last year, the Red Sox lost out to the Yankees on Mark Teixeira, and the division’s balance of power went with him. Bay or Holliday is the most likely addition. They almost have to get one of them. Epstein is also looking to add depth to his starting rotation.
Trade winds: The Red Sox have targeted Adrian Gonzalez for years, seemingly. They might have had a better chance when Kevin Towers was GM, however, as Towers had the standing in San Diego to take the PR hit that surely would follow such a trade. Jed Hoyer, who only weeks ago was Epstein’s assistant, would have to clearly win the trade to make it. The Red Sox are among the teams that could take on Miguel Cabrera’s salary if the Tigers were to make him available.
Cash considerations: Like the Yankees’, the Red Sox’s cash considerations are different than most. They’ve got six arbitration eligibles, Jonathan Papelbon among them.
By spring training... Dustin Pedroia will have agreed to play left field and pitch the eighth inning most nights.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Holes to fill: The Rays lost 13 wins over the season before, not counting all those October wins. True to their history (before ’08), the bullpen was a culprit and that’s GM Andrew Friedman’s focus, picking through the market’s many back-end types. He’s looking for a closer and general depth and ought to come up with something in his price range. If he is healthy, J.J. Putz – a Troy Percival type in the clubhouse – is a possibility. Kevin Gregg seems to pitch well in Florida. The Rays also want to upgrade at catcher, where Dioner Navarro dropped a .583 OPS into an otherwise promising career. As a result, he’s a non-tender possibility.
Trade winds: Pat Burrell(notes) for Milton Bradley isn’t out of the possibility. The Rays, however, must be in a position where they could release Bradley without financial discomfort. The Cubs haven’t gotten there yet. If they find themselves on the periphery of contention again, the Rays could trade Carl Crawford for greater organizational health. Right-handed starter Andy Sonnanstin is believed to be available.
Cash considerations: The Rays generally do a nice job with what they have. It would help a lot if they could erase the Burrell mistake, along with the $9 million they owe him next year.
By spring training... everybody will be styling in their new Ed Hardy wear.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Holes to fill: There won’t be many more popular folks in Indy than rookie GM Alex Anthopoulos, who, if you don’t know him, will be the guy with the ace right-hander sticking out of his back pocket. A little health and many of the Blue Jays’ issues heal themselves. They still need help in the outfield and a catcher, and they feel like they covered themselves at shortstop with Alex Gonzalez and John McDonald(notes). Now they wait for Shaun Marcum(notes), Dustin McGowan(notes) and Jesse Litsch.
Trade winds: Roy Halladay, Scott Downs, Jason Frasor and Lyle Overbay are in their walk years. So, Anthopoulos gets to redecorate the organization to his taste. Halladay will be very popular, particularly with the high-end franchises, as he was in mid-summer. And even though there’s been some front office turnover, complaints the Jays are asking for too much haven’t subsided.
Cash considerations: The Jays were fortunate to have the White Sox take Alex Rios off their hands. They won’t be so lucky with Vernon Wells, who’s owed another $107 million. Wells is coming off wrist surgery and turns 31 next week; maybe he can still turn this around.
By spring training... Halladay’s people insist they won’t approve a trade after Halladay reports. We have our doubts.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Holes to fill: Before becoming commissioner, Andy MacPhail has the more consuming job of turning the Orioles into something capable. They’re working on 12 consecutive losing seasons, the last 2&12frac; under MacPhail. His immediate concerns are at first base and/or third base, depending on whether one likes Ty Wigginton(notes) at first, third or neither. Couldn’t you see Carlos Delgado here? Or Pedro Feliz? The O’s would like to feather a veteran starter or two alongside Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Jeremy Guthrie and Brad Bergesen, perhaps going for the Ben Sheets/Rich Harden/Erik Bedard injury history types. MacPhail could also use a closer, seeing as he traded his – George Sherrill – to the Dodgers last summer.
Trade winds: They’ve still got some distance to cover, no matter what they do, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Guthrie become available, or Luke Scott. Felix Pie could be had, as well.
Cash considerations: The Orioles are out from under Melvin Mora’s contract, along with a handful of others that will clear some payroll space for that first baseman and starting pitcher they’ve got their eye on.
By spring training... The Orioles have to do something to start winning back that town and inching back into AL East relevancy.
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Major League Baseball "Nostradamus" Makes the Call
December 5, 2009
There is a growing baseball undercurrent surrounding a man who may be forcing the next great changes to developing winning MLB organizations. Some supporters call it a “Nostradamus-like” intangible prophetic intuition and detractors call it just luck but after two recent books that correctly called out the winning formula for winning teams and also-rans in 2008 (The Official Book on the Business of Baseball General Management) and 2009 (Street Smart Sports Management), eyebrows are raised in the world of baseball.
Just a few of many eerily correct Paul Martino observations detailed in his books and blogs:
» Before the 2008 season Martino specifically called out one team ownership and management to raise payroll by $10million, add an ace relief pitcher, and reinforce the bench and relief in order to go from 2 players short to World Champions; the team he called out was the Phillies.
Before the 2009 season Martino observed that:
» While the Phillies conservative fiscal approach to the game had become a strength in the worst economic crisis since the Depression, the Phillies still needed to find midseason starting pitching if they were to return to the World Series.
» Detailed how the Rangers issue is and always has been pitching, not payroll.
» Defended the Yankees spending but pointed out how weak the outfield and bench were; Martino accurately pinpointed the Yankees success was not in their spending spree but limited injuries and the OF improvements during the year. Without the Yankees outfield changes the Phillies would be two time World Champions.
» Asked why the Red Sox had been relatively clean throughout “Steroid Era.” Martino published his observations before Ramirez and Ortiz became spotlight center stage.
» Provided the state of the games in terms of victory-maximizers vs. profit maximizers that proved to be prophetic in terms of winners and losers in this economic climate.
Not since Bill James and Moneyball has the game been so close to being radically improved. As the man Paul Martino describes it, “Respectfully, I raise the bar to include street smarts balanced with a disciplined business model, economics, finance, strategy, sabermetrics and baseball subject matter experts. Your opponents grow strong from the crumbs you leave behind; I scope down into all sides of the game including ones too hot to touch, like performance enhancements.”
When pointed out that his assertions may be challenged by baseball insiders, Martino knowingly nodded and acknowledged the naysayer, “My abbreviated response is that I understand veterans’ of the game concerns. That said, I’ve played and been a student of the game all my life; like Bill James, current MLB GMs and many others, I have proven leadership skills that build winning organizations. Baseball is a critical culture where even some Hall of Fame players are criticized. At the end of the day my long-term $multi-million wins, and success at getting it right in my two books is the proof I stand on…and I’m just warming up.”
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