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Are there any NBA GM's still willng to gamble?
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By Zach Lowe
November 8, 2010
Are there any willing to take a chance despite low odds of success, good odds of catastrophe and an uncertain collective bargaining agreement?
We’ll soon find out, because the next couple of months will serve as audition time for at least four players whose teams would love to move them — and their onerous contracts — for anything close to 50 cents on the dollar. Moving any of them would seem impossible, but two are quietly producing and are capable of prolific stretches that may tempt some of the league’s trigger-happy teams.
The four, in rough order of movability, are Richard Hamilton, Elton Brand, Baron Davis and Gilbert Arenas. No team should want these guys. Any general manager should hang up the phone as soon as his colleagues merely mentions their names, unless the discussion is one of those “you take my long-term problems, and I’ll take yours” sorts of things.
But look a little closer and you may see that, perhaps, there really isn’t such a thing as an untradable contract in the NBA. Take Brand, for instance. The Sixers’ forward has $51.2 million left on his contract, and he’s suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon and a bad shoulder injury over the last couple of years. He should be radioactive.
But he’s currently ninth in the league in Player Efficiency Rating, right up there above Rudy Gay, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan and a slew of other big names. Brand, 31, isn’t attacking the rim or getting to the line like he did in his prime, but he’s shooting 58 percent and has flashed both a reliable mid-range shot and a strong back-to-the-basket game. GMs drool over the dwindling number of guys who can score consistently from the post.
If Brand keeps playing like this, is it totally unfathomable that a good team with a hole in its frontcourt might be intrigued, particularly if Philadelphia would throw in an attractive asset to sweeten the deal?
Then there’s Hamilton, who put up a vintage 25 points on 10-of-17 shooting in the Pistons’ win over Golden State on Sunday. Hamilton is closing in on 33, but he’s in great shape and could play a more limited Ray Allen-style, floor-spacing role for a good team that wouldn’t need him to score 20 a game.
Hamilton is due $12.5 million this season and next, and is guaranteed at least $9 million in 2012-13, according to ShamSports. That’s a hefty contract, but is it an unmovable one? Detroit coach John Kuester appears committed to starting Hamilton over Ben Gordon, and that will at least give Hamilton the chance to show what he has left.
Davis and Arenas, meanwhile, are much less reliable right now, and their teams have less pure basketball incentive to play them than the Pistons and Sixers have to play Hamilton and Brand, respectively. Davis told FanHouse’s Chris Tomasson over the weekend that he has been experiencing knee pain off and on since 2007, and the Clippers, lottery-bound with or without Davis, seem ready to roll with an Eric Gordon-Eric Bledsoe backcourt. But if the Clippers do that, they’ll never be able to unload Davis, who is owed $41.7 million over the next three seasons.
The Wizards, of course, have handed the team to John Wall and are justifiably worried that Arenas will slow the No. 1 pick’s learning curve by siphoning away some of the rookie’s ball-handling responsibilities and shots. There’s still hope that Arenas could slip into a useful shooting-guard role as he ages, but watching him jack 13 shots in 25 minutes Saturday against Cleveland didn’t boost that hope.
But the Wizards have limited options with Arenas and the $80 million left on his deal (through 2013-2014). They can either play him and hope he makes himself tradable, or give up until Arenas becomes an expiring contract, as the Knicks have done with Eddy Curry. The latter path removes the possibility that Arenas could screw up whatever chemistry might develop in Washington, but it ensures that the Wizards will start each offseason knowing more than one-third of their cap room is locked up in a sunk cost.
Good luck, Flip Saunders.
10 THINGS I LIKE AND DON’T LIKE
1. Houston’s Defense
I’m not a fan of Houston’s D. Only the Kings and Timberwolves have allowed more points per possession than the 1-5 Rockets, and Houston was last in the league until they got to feast on the pathetic Timberwolves on Sunday. The Spurs shredded the Rockets on Saturday and, in doing so, revealed just about everything wrong with Houston’s defense. The team ranks toward the bottom of the league in defensive rebounding rate, opponents’ three-point percentage and foul rate. It’s a team-wide problem that can’t be blamed on one or two players.
And the last 4:05 of the first quarter of Saturday’s loss to the Spurs seem to tell it all. In that span, Antonio McDyess nailed three consecutive 20-foot jumpers on pick-and-pop plays on which no Rocket even bothered to half-heartedly run out in his direction. Whether it was Brad Miller or Luis Scola, the Rockets sat back and allowed McDyess to make the exact shot he has made a living on for 10 years. It was a stunning display of disinterest from a team many pegged as a shadow contender. Watch that stretch, and you’ll understand why mid-range shots are killing the Rockets.
Houston’s offense is dynamite, but the Rockets are going nowhere unless they improve their defense.
2. Rudy Gay’s early-season vengeance tour
I’m thoroughly enjoying Gay’s early-season dominance. Nearly every NBA observer – myself included — chided the Grizzlies for tossing a near-maximum contract at Gay instead of first feeling out the market competition. Gay didn’t make a big show of using that criticism as motivation, but he has started off this season playing at a different level: He’s averaging 27.1 points per game, third in the league behind Monta Ellis and Kevin Durant, and he’s shooting 53 percent from the field and 45 percent from deep.
Plus, his passing and assist rate have jumped from embarrassingly bad to “pretty bad but not humiliating,” and he’s turning the ball over very rarely, despite carrying a huge burden for a Memphis team that has missed Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph at times. He’s also working hard on defense, just as he did during the FIBA World Championship last summer.
The bad news is that Gay is rebounding and getting to the line at about the same rate as he has throughout his career, meaning his improvement so far stems mostly from taking more shots and making them at a higher rate. Is the latter sustainable?
3. Dwayne Wade’s alley-oop to LeBron James with 2:50 left in the third quarter Saturday against the Nets
I initially didn’t like this alley-oop, though I’ve since softened my stance. As Matt Moore pointed out at Pro Basketball Talk, Wade was far ahead of Terrence Williams and could have finished this fast break with an uncontested jam or layup. But Wade changed his mind in mid-air and left the ball hanging for James, who caught it and jammed with two hands.
It was a spectacular play, and it annoyed me immediately. The basketball gods must frown upon such hubris, and if Wade dares try this against a quality team in the playoffs, he might screw it up and cost his team two important points.
That being said, I’ve come to appreciate the bombastic play a little. A play like that can be more valuable than it initially seems, particularly if executed during a home game. It drove the crowd insane, and that can only help the home team. Right? And it must be demoralizing for an opponent to realize it can’t even stop this team from showboating, let alone scoring in the normal course of the game. Maybe the intangible benefits of scoring two points in this matter outweigh the extra risk?
4. Brandon Jennings scoring at the rim
Last season, Jennings converted just 42.7 percent of his shots at the rim. That’s an awful number. The average guard hit about 58 percent of these close shots, and among guards who logged at least 40 games last season, only Derek Fisher and D.J. Augustin were worse than Jennings.
It’s early, but Jennings has improved markedly to hit 57 percent of his shots at the rim this season.
That’s just average, but average for Jennings in this category is progress. Milwaukee’s offense is struggling again, but Jennings’ finishing ability isn’t one of the culprits this time. I’m liking this.
5. Hasheem Thabeet, Darko Milicic living up to stereotypes
This, I don’t like. Sure, these two guys provide easy grist for jokes at the expense of two of the more polarizing (that’s the nice term) figures in the NBA in Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley and Timberwolves president David Kahn. But watching guys fail so miserably isn’t fun. They’re humans, after all, and they’re trying.
So far, though, it’s just not working out for either guy. Thabeet, who was selected second in the 2009 draft because, according to reports, Heisley wanted him, can’t even get on the court. He’s played just 77 minutes this season and has racked up nine points (on 2-of-9 shooting), five turnovers and 13 fouls. To Thabeet’s credit, he has blocked six shots and grabbed 15 boards, but his lack of playing time and evident progress are becoming an embarrassment to Memphis — especially considering how well Marc Gasol has developed at Thabeet’s position. You don’t use the No. 2 pick with the hope of finding a nice backup.
As for Milicic, the jokes are just too easy. Kahn signed Milicic to a four-year, $20 million contract last summer and referred to Milicic as both “manna from heaven” and a passing big man on par with the great Vlade Divac.
In seven games, Milicic has made nine baskets in 39 attempts (23 percent) and dished six assists. He’s turned the ball over 14 times, which isn’t bad on its own, but looks bad when paired with assist numbers Divac would never accept. Milicic’s Player Efficiency Rating is 4.3, which ranks 283rd out of 307 players on pace to log 500 minutes this season.
6. Marquis Daniels being what Boston fans hoped he’d be
Add this one to the “likes.” Daniels is healthy after struggling with a thumb injury last season, and he’s doing what the Celtics expected he’d do when they signed him before last season: scoring in creative ways off the bench and playing sound defense. Daniels is shooting 56 percent on a variety of shots generated with off-the-ball cuts, aggressive takes and tricky post-ups.
On defense, Daniels isn’t spectacular, but he doesn’t give away points with silly mistakes or gambles. He stays in front of his guy and refuses to bite on pump-fakes. You might score on him, but he’ll at least make you earn it. Daniels can be a difference-maker for an already deep Boston team.
7. James Posey’s shot selection
I hadn’t noticed this until Indy Cornrows pointed it out: Posey has taken 20 shots this season, and 18 have been three-pointers (he’s made six from deep). Knowing your limitations is a skill, and Posey knows his. Good stuff from the Pacer.
8. What Steve Nash does when a big man gets switched on to him
This might actually be my single favorite matchup moment in the NBA. A number of guards get lazy in this situation and use their quickness to create extra space for a step-back jumper. The problem is that many guards don’t shoot jump shots as well as they think they do. Nash is perhaps the greatest shooting point guard in the history of the sport.
But it’s his patience in attacking switches that is unique. Watch how he went after Marc Gasol on a switch during the first overtime of the Suns’ win over Memphis on Saturday. Nash initially tried to fool Gasol with a series of hard dribbles, but Gasol stuck with him and didn’t yield enough space for an easy jumper. Some guys might have picked up their dribble and swung the ball elsewhere here. Not Nash. He pulled the ball back out beyond the three-point arc and blew by Gasol for an easy lefty layup. Beautiful.
9. That Rajon Rondo has mild plantar fasciitis
I’m not liking this news for Boston. The only way to treat this injury is to rest, and Rondo insists the pain isn’t serious enough to warrant rest. Rondo knows his body, and he has continued to pile up double-doubles despite the foot pain. Still, the implications of any lingering injury are obvious. Be careful, Celtics.
10. Pau Gasol’s destruction of the NBA
Pau Gasol has been the best player in the NBA so far this season. Anyone care to argue otherwise?
• NBA News Archive Index:
2010, 2009
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