20 questions about the NBA season | Cheap NBA Tickets

By Zach Lowe
October 26, 2010

The 2010-11 season, one of the most anticipated ever, begins tonight with the new-look Miami Heat facing the Celtics in Boston (7:30 p.m. ET). After a summer packed with big-name moves, here are 20 burning questions that hover over the season.

1. Will there be any progress in the labor talks?

This is the biggest question, one that will cloud the entire season, and the early indications are not good. The league has stuck to its demand, first officially floated in the winter, that player salaries be cut by one-third — roughly $700 million or so — in the next collective bargaining agreement. The players have declared that number a non-starter.

Meanwhile, just about everything you could think of is at stake here: the rules that allow teams to go over the cap to sign their own players, the quality of the 2011 draft and the other cap exceptions for mid-level and minimum-salaried veterans.

The NBA is poised for the biggest and most lucrative year in its history. Will it be lucrative enough that both sides conclude they cannot risk a work stoppage?

2. Will the Heat’s three stars jell?

This is the popular question about the Heat — this and whether LeBron James can become the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple-double — but to me, it has always been the wrong one. The Heat’s stars are all unselfish players, and they will get along just fine. Hand-wringing about “who will be the man with the game on the line?” will turn out to have been overblown. The Heat’s lack of quality depth and inability to upgrade their roster in a significant way during the season loom as far bigger obstacles to a title in the first Chris Bosh-James-Dwyane Wade season.

3. Did the Celtics add enough offense and rebounding — and did they hurt their defense in the process?

Game 7 of last year’s NBA Finals was a perfect encapsulation of Boston’s flaws: The Celtics had trouble scoring against good defenses, and their rebounding was suspect. Their offseason moves were designed to address both problems, but will playing the re-signed Nate Robinson more and giving important minutes to Shaquille O’Neal hurt the team’s defense — its bread-and-butter?

4. Who will rise up to challenge the Lakers in the West?

The Lakers’ core is a year older, and they’re already banged up coming off three consecutive long slogs to the Finals. But is anybody in the Western Conference ready to take them out? Chances are, one of the half-dozen or so teams behind L.A. in the West’s pecking order will make a leap based on talent development and good luck with health. Who will it be? Maybe the Thunder, but don’t forget about the Blazers — a regular-season nemesis for L.A. over the last three seasons.

5. Will things blow up in Denver?

No would-be contender — if Denver still qualifies for that status — is on shakier ground to start the season. You know about Carmelo Anthony’s trade request, but remember: J.R. Smith is a free agent after this season, Nene can opt out of his 2011-12 contract and only $3.7 million of Chauncey Billups’ $14.2 million salary for next season is guaranteed. Even George Karl is on an expiring contract. If things start badly in Denver, the moves could come fast, and quickly alter the league’s landscape.

6. Does Orlando need a go-to perimeter scorer, or is that person already on the roster?

The Magic’s offense sputtered against Boston in the playoffs in part because Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis could not score against the Celtics’ defense. The Magic’s go-to perimeter play — the pick-and-roll involving Dwight Howard and either Nelson or Carter — did not produce enough open looks, raising questions about whether the Magic need a player who can isolate and generate a good look in crunch time. Stan Van Gundy has spent the preseason experimenting with ways to make his team’s offense less predictable. Will it be enough? Or do the Magic need to look elsewhere, perhaps dangling Carter’s partially guaranteed 2011-12 deal as bait?

7. With a lockout looming, what happens at the trade deadline?

There are more than a dozen high-priced expiring contracts that could hit the market along with two huge trade exceptions (Cleveland and Toronto) and a handful of others. But with a possible lockout before next season and new collective bargaining agreement, it’s possible that teams holding expiring deals and other assets will simply let them expire rather than taking on long-term obligations in exchange. Will the year pass without a major deal among the contenders?

8. Will Portland make a move?

By acquiring a first-round pick from the Hornets for Jerryd Bayless, the Blazers have put together a nice war chest of assets: two 2011 first-round picks, a pile of attractive young players and future picks. There might not be a team better positioned to pounce if an impact player becomes available.

9. Is the race for No.2 in the Eastern Conference more important than the race for No. 1?

The Bulls, Bucks and Hawks form a scary 4-5-6 trio behind the Magic, Celtics and Heat. It’s possible another team in the East will emerge as a pesky first-round out, but as the season starts, there seems to be a decided advantage in earning one of the top two seeds and getting an easier first-round series as a reward. The big loser here could be Boston. The Celtics will win the Atlantic Division easily, but they’re an older team built for the playoffs and to not to chase 65 wins in the regular season. Can they win four consecutive tough series?

10. If the Rockets are in, who’s out?

Fans of every incumbent Western Conference playoff team bristle whenever experts predict their team will miss the playoffs. But here’s reality: The Rockets, with Yao Ming looking (relatively) healthy alongside a deep core of solid players, are well-positioned to make the postseason again after a year away. That means a very good team from last season’s top eight is headed back to the lottery. The smart money is on Phoenix or Denver, but no one outside the Lakers is guaranteed anything in the West.

11. Will the Pistons make a deal? And will it matter?

The Pistons are fast becoming the most popular choice for Most Depressing Team honors, and though I think the basketball-related misery in Detroit is exaggerated, there’s no question the Pistons need to cut some salary and move players from their overcrowded wing situation. The prime candidates are Tayshaun Prince, who is playing on an $11.1 million expiring deal, and Richard Hamilton, who has three years and at least $34 million left on a contract extension that was a disaster almost from the minute Joe Dumars offered it. Prince is 30; Hamilton is 32. Can Detroit move them? And can the Pistons get anything in return?

12. Will the Spurs evolve?

The Spurs are perhaps the best of the “if everything goes right …” contenders, but they’ll need more than fortunate health to challenge the Lakers. Someone in the George Hill-DeJuan Blair-Richard Jefferson-Tiago Splitter group must become an impact player, nearly on par with the Spurs’ Big Three in terms of scoring production and individual creativity. But more than that, the Spurs have to move away — at least a bit — from the brand of low-risk basketball they’ve been playing on both ends for most of the Tim Duncan era. Gregg Popovich has promised the team will try to run more, and the Spurs have the personnel to do so, especially on possessions that start with Duncan — their one slowpoke — grabbing a defensive rebound and tossing an outlet pass to a speedier player. They could also stand to grab more offensive boards, and they need to get to the foul line more.

13. What happens to Tony Parker?

Parker and Anthony are the top names in a so-so 2011 free-agent class, and if things go badly in San Antonio through the first 50 games, the Spurs would have to consider floating Parker’s name on the trade market, especially if Hill continues to develop.

Parker makes $13.5 million this season, so a match won’t be easy to find. But teams will obviously be interested in a 28-year-old with a Finals MVP on his résumé — even if players who base their game on pure speed tend to age poorly.

14. Will the Hawks stay the course?

It’s rare to see a team that brought back all of its core players change as dramatically as new coach Larry Drew wants to change the Hawks. Atlanta is now running a motion-based offense, full of flex-style cuts and off-ball movement, and it’s done a 180 in the way it is defending pick-and-rolls. The idea is not to rely so much on Joe Johnson isolations on offense and stop switching so much on defense, since switching takes Atlanta’s best rebounders away from the hoop. The changes could make Atlanta a more dangerous team, but they may also bring growing pains and grumbling for a return to the old ways.

Remember: This is a team that won 53 games last season and has shown it can beat everyone but the Magic.

15. Will some key arena and ownership situations get resolved?

A badly needed ownership deal in New Orleans has been held up, while transitions in Denver, Charlotte, Golden State, Washington and New Jersey are more or less done. The Pistons appear next, though a host of other teams — the Pacers, Bucks and Grizzlies — could hit the market soon. These deals will literally change the face of the league.

Meanwhile, Sacramento fans are bracing for disaster after the most recent proposal for a new arena fell apart and David Stern declared that the arena situation is nearly hopeless (for now) while mentioning the word “contraction.” Gulp.

16. How good will this rookie class be?

We know three guys are set to make a huge impact right away: Blake Griffin, DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall. All three are going to be must-watch players.

But there will be at least one or two other rookies who will make unexpected contributions to good teams. It could be Cole Aldrich filling the Thunder’s need for a big center. It could be Patrick Patterson’s all-around game fitting in nicely for 10 minutes a night in Houston. Maybe it’s Avery Bradley menacing opposing point guards in Boston, Al-Farouq Aminu filling the hole at small forward with the Clippers, or Gordon Hayward holding his own on the wing in Utah. Someone, somewhere will be an unanticipated impact rookie.

17. Is there a plan in New Orleans? And will it be enough to placate Chris Paul?

The Hornets traded their most promising young player, Darren Collison, to nab Trevor Ariza as a full-court running mate and spot-up shooter for Paul. They’ve made three separate trades for backup point guard types (Bayless, Willie Green and Curtis Jerrells) in the last month and have already waived one of those players (Jerrells). Jason Smith may be their best backup big man, Peja Stojakovic’s contract expires after this season and David West can opt out of his 2011-12 deal.

The Hornets have a wonderful starting five, but there are loads of questions after that. How the Hornets answer those questions will go a long way in deciding whether Paul remains a Hornet after next season.

18. How will restricted free agency play out?

So far, only two members of the 2007 draft class (Kevin Durant and Joakim Noah) have signed extensions to their rookie deals. It’s possible a couple of others, including Al Horford, might reach deals before the Nov. 1 deadline. Either way, a pile of quality fourth-year players (Greg Oden, Rodney Stuckey, Jeff Green, Jared Dudley, Wilson Chandler and others) will hit the free-agent market after the season as (mostly) restricted free agents — and right as the league may be entering a period of great uncertainty.

Teams tend to overpay their own players (see: Rudy Gay), but who knows how the summer’s restricted free-agent season will play out?

19. What happens if the Mavericks lose in the first round again, or worse?

The Mavs have won one playoff series since losing the 2006 Finals, and Mark Cuban is spending a lot of money to make sure they win at least one this season. And if they don’t? Well, the Mavs have two huge expiring contracts (Caron Butler and Tyson Chandler) and two other key cogs whose deals expire after 2011-12 (Jason Kidd and Jason Terry). They also have a coach in Rick Carlisle who may have to win a playoff series to keep his job. There might not be a more fearless owner than Cuban when it comes to making moves, and there could be quite a few to make here.

20. Who wins the 2010-11 NBA title?

My money remains on a Heat-Lakers showdown in the Finals, and, at this moment, I still consider the Lakers favorites in that series. The Pau Gasol-Lamar Odom-Andrew Bynum front line is an incredibly devastating thing that few teams can deal with, the Kobe Bryant-Ron Artest duo can at least neutralize Wade and James on defense, and Gasol is straight-up better than Chris Bosh. Both teams have some depth questions, particularly on the front line, but these are the two best teams in the league barring injury. And the Lakers, right now, look better.

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